Hog & Corn Comments: 02/02/2010 Hogs bounce higher off of support area.


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CORN – Mar ‘10 Electronic
Open – $3.59, High – $3.67 1/4, Low – $3.58 3/4, Close – $3.65 Up $.06
Thoughts – Long Term (into April ‘10) – Sideways

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Mar ‘10: Well the $3.57 3/4 support area has held thus far and provided us with a little pop in the market today.  I was expecting an early high today and then see the market drift, however, it was firm most of the day.  Not much has changed from yesterday post as we continue to focus on the $3.57 3/4 area for support.  Today we closed above a prior day high and I will look for another close above today’s high tomorrow before I get excited about an extension of today’s rally.

As I mentioned yesterday I did have a cycle low projected yesterday and thus far it is holding true.  I need to see more positive closes before I jump on the high moving corn bandwagon.  Since we didn’t get it today, I will look for an early high tomorrow and then weakness as the day progresses.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Mar ‘10 Corn – Support/Resistance for 02-03-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.80 1/2
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.72
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.68 1/4
Today’s close: $3.65
(
S1) Support 1: $3.59 3/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.55
(S3) Support 3: $3.46 1/2
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MEAL – Mar ‘10 Electronic
Open – $272.00, High – $275.30, Low – $270.70, Close – $273.60 Up $1.80

Thoughts – Long Term (i
nto April ‘10) – Sideways/Lower

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Mar ‘10 meal: Meal did experience an early low today and traded a few higher for most of the day but again going into the close we sold off just like yesterday.  Like corn not much has changed from my comments yesterday as $278.00 remains a key level of resistance that I believe we need to get back above by Friday’s market close if the market wants to make any attempt at moving higher.  I am looking for better trade early in the session tomorrow and then weaken as the day progresses.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Mar ‘10 Meal – Support/Resistance for 02-03-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $282.30
(R2) Resistance 2: $277.70

(R1) Resistance 1: $275.60

Today’s close: $273.60
(S1) Support 1: $271.00
(S2) Support 2: $268.50

(S3) Support 3: $263.90

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HOGS – Apr ‘10 GLOBEX
Open – $66.15, High – $67.025, Low – $65.80, Close – $66.85 Up $.70
Thoughts – Long Term
(into April) – Neutral/Higher

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Hog margins continue to show some profit for the coming year.  If you would like to run a profitability crush for your operation, email us at leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com.

Apr‘10 hogs: April indeed had an early low today and firmed as the day progressed.  It feels like we are attempting to find a bottom given the cutout was down $1.57 yesterday and yet we still closed $.70-$1.00 higher on the day.  The futures have now moved back above the $66.52 area that I spoke of yesterday.  I’m looking for continued follow through to the upside tonight and early into tomorrow’s session.  It is my assumption that the cutout values will be higher this afternoon based on the positive trade we had today.

Again keep an eye on the $66.52 area this Friday as we want the April ‘10 contract to close above this level in order to stay healthy on the charts as I see them.  I still have a cycle low projected for Feb 9th time-frame in the April contract so I don’t expect a run away market to the upside but I do believe we have moved low enough for now IF we close above $67.07 tomorrow.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early high tomorrow.

Apr ‘10 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 02-03-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $69.00
(R2) Resistance 2: $67.775
(R1) Resistance 1: $67.30
Today’s close: $66.85
(S1) Support 1: $66.10
(S2) Support 2: $65.325
(S3) Support 3: $64.10

 

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