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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Corn continues to baffle many traditional fundamental traders. Just when you think it's acting "sick" and that prices are going to break it shows signs of resilience. Some traders are blaming it on the unwinding of spreads by the Quant's or Algo's...who have been long soybeans against a little bit of everything, including short corn and short wheat positions. As they exit theses positions they obviously have to sell the soybeans and buyback the corn and wheat to get flat. I should note there was also some talk yesterday that a couple of cargoes of Ukraine corn that was supposed to be delivered to an importer was NOT going to be shipped due to some political concerns. The trade is also talking about the fact the Argentine basis level remains strong and that both Argentine and Ukraine corn remain more expensive than US corn. There is also some conflicting weather forecasts floating around, with a couple of well followed sources calling for cooler and wetter than normal conditions across a large portion of the corn belt. I suspect as long as "demand" stays strong, which appears to be the case, the trade wants to be more certain about timely planting and overall new-crop production. From my perspective this means new-crop DEC14 prices might simply remain trapped in a range between $4.80 and $5.10. CLICK HERE for my daily report...
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