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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Corn ending stocks will be the focus this week, as traders prepare for another dose of USDA estimates. From what I can gather most in the trade seem to be thinking the USDA will bump their old-crop ending stocks estimate from 632 million to just over 835 million bushels. Several sources in the trade are thinking the number will eventually be much higher, maybe 900 million bushels plus. Obviously more plentiful supplies will make it tough for the bulls to add to their position. Keep in mind this reaction is coming on the heels of the USDA surprising the trade less than two-weeks ago in the "Quarterly Stocks Report." Corn traders will also be waiting to see what the USDA has to say about South American production. Remember the April and May rains will do a lot to determine the overall yields of the large second crop planted in Brazil. I thought it was interesting to hear talk out of Brazil this weekend that they are thinking about importing corn from Argentina to their most Northeast regions who have been hit hard by the recent drought. The rumor is there are not many alternatives, especially since the freight truck companies aren't interested in carrying corn to this region with all of the soybean and sugar business in full-swing.
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