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Grain Hedge

RSS By: Brock Schimbeno, AgWeb.com

Grain Hedge is a self-directed discount brokerage that saves farmers money when trading in the futures and options market. For $7 commissions per side producers can execute their marketing strategy with authority, any time the markets trade.

USDA Report - What To Expect

Apr 09, 2013

This Wednesday, at 11:00 AM Central Time, the USDA will release the April WASDE Report. Below are market expectations for US ending stocks, and what Grain Hedge analysts are looking for out of the numbers. 
 
US Ending Stock Estimates
 
 
Avg. Guess
Range
March
Corn 812
625 - 925
632
Soybeans
136
107 - 160
125
Wheat
727
700 - 755
716
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ending stocks of corn will be closely analyzed after the March 1st Quarterly Stocks showed almost 400 million more corn bushels than the market was expecting. Given domestic and export demand, we do not think an ending stock number approaching 900 million bushels would be out of the question.

  

We would expect the USDA to revise feed and possibly ethanol usage lower in Wednesday's report to help make up for the additional bushels found in the March 1st grain stocks. Old crop prices will be fighting an uphill battle until we see demand return to this market. Even after losing $1.00 per bushel on May corn futures we have not seen a sizable improvement in old crop export sales.

Expectations are for wheat and soybean ending stocks to be raised slightly from the March report, but corn will remain the focus of Wednesday's numbers. This report is especially important for producers holding on to old crop bushels, as 2013/14 production and usage will not be projected until the May WASDE report.

 

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