Allendale, Inc has and will attend many producer and end user meetings and a common question which is asked is what to do about old crop corn marketings. Be very aware there are many factors which Allendale Inc watches with regards to grain marketing such as basis, futures and spreads to name just a few.

We are completely aware of quarterly grain stocks of 10.934 billion bushels and how the first quarter use was 26%. This compares to a range of 26% to 29% and five year ave of 27.2%. At 10.934 billion bushels of on and off farm stocks it represents the largest quarterly stocks verses the old record of 10.306 billion bushels  in the 1982-83 marketing year. Allendale Inc is well aware of how 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th quarter use is less each quarter with 1^st quarter use the strongest.

The industry is well aware of the large quarterly corn stocks as well as pockets of light and heavy test weight corn. Is the elevator paying you above 56 pound test weight corn? But the elevator is not afraid to dock you as a producer for sub 56 pound test weight. Allendale Inc ask you, whether basis, GMP, HTA or various other forward contracts, why are you utilizing the country elevator?

In our travels this winter it is encouraging to hear how aware you all are how as futures rise, basis widens-weakens. We are at a cross roads which tells the producer to sell the cash and IF you so choose to re own via futures and or options.

Allendale Inc is well aware of how wheat, sorghum and rice as starches compete with USA corn, and especially the wheat supply is recognized as a negative to corn. Ask yourself, what is keeping you from selling 2009 cash corn other than those of you hedged, earning money based on the spreads.

We have many risk management tools for you to choose from and ask you become involved with marketing 2009 and 2010 corn.

Allendale Inc has many Midwest meetings planned all the way through mid-March and would appreciate meeting you, visit the web site for a complete list. Allendale Inc also ask you to check out the link below as we conduct our annual acreage survey.

 

 

We welcome your questions and comments.........Joe Victor

 

 

Allendale Inc welcomes any questions you may have by calling 800-551-4626 or

e-mail    research@allendale-inc.com

 

 

 

 

                    Allendale Inc will begin with the US soybean crush and finish with exports. These two main users of annual soybean production account for 92.3% of annual production. The soybean crush into soybean meal and soybean oil account for 50.9%. As you are able to view via this chart,  soybean crush for the 2009/10 market year is running very strong. At Allendale Inc, we analyze the “US Census Bureau” as well as “The National Oilseed Processors Association” and the crusher margin. We need to make note that NOPA as a members association runs about 6 million bushels per month lighter than the US Census Bureau. As we continue to explain to the major wire services, it may produce good news to write about China switching US purchased soybeans to South America (4 million bushels), but make sure you include the need for USDA to increase its US soybean crush target by 53 million bushels in response to the 2009/10 soybean crush target of 1.71 billion bushels.

Allendale Inc does include and makes available to its subscribers the “Soybean Gross Crush Margin,” which has been very profitable dating back to mid 2009. This profitability to crush soybeans into meal and oil remains strong but we do need to consider Brazil, Argentina and surrounding countries. Of course you do know ADM and Bunge as well as others are crushing oilseeds outside of the US.

Allendale Inc is not surprised when it comes to soybean exports. The best news is how we have filled the needs of our largest customer (China). Take a look at another chart we update weekly for our customers, the weekly “Soybean Export Sales.” Allendale Inc fully anticipates its No. 1 export customer, China, will transition to South America as new supplies become available. Allendale Inc fully understands how this 40.9% demand remains strong for the first and second quarter and notably trails off the balance of the year. The question remains, how does this export action, crush and South America impact your bottom line?

Allendale Inc will cover the fundamental, technical and strategies you can choose from in a meeting near you. It is time for you to pick up the phone and register for a meeting.

 

We welcome your questions and comments.........Joe Victor

 

Allendale Inc welcomes any questions you may have by calling 800-551-4626 or

e-mail    research@allendale-inc.com