June 2011 Archive for MGEX Research

RSS By: Joe Victor, AgWeb.com

Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.

Durum Wheat Plantings

Jun 24, 2011

The March 2011 Prospective Plantings issued by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated durum wheat acreage at 2.365 million. Of the total acres, 67.6 percent is to be planted in North Dakota, 21.6 percent in Montana, 6.5 percent in California, 2.9 percent in Arizona and less than 1 percent in both South Dakota and Idaho.

The National State Statistic Service (NASS) in Montana has been archiving weekly planting progress data for durum since 2002. According to the June 19 weekly NASS reports from Montana and North Dakota, nearly 942,000 durum acres, or 39.8 percent of the March Prospective Plantings, have yet to be planted.

Based on the most recent five year yield and acreage average for Montana and North Dakota, total durum wheat production has been 61.67 million bushels, or 72 percent of total U.S. production. Planting progress in 2011 for these two states suggest there are 33.06 million bushels, or 38.8 percent of the past five year average total volume, at risk.

The five year average for total durum wheat domestic use is 83.96 million bushels. The lack of planting progress in Montana and North Dakota represents a void of 39.4 percent of the total five year average of domestic use and 27 percent of total use and exports.

Other major countries who produce durum wheat and are experiencing weather related problems include some European Union nations, Canada, Turkey and Syria.

MGEX welcomes your questions.........Joe Victor

www.mgex.com

800.827.4746

Information used to compile this update is from publicly available sources. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a trading recommendation of MGEX, its employee or its members. For informational purposes only.

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Planted Acres instead of Prospective Plantings

Jun 13, 2011

On Thursday, June 30, 2011 the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is scheduled to release "Acreage", a report on major, planted U.S. crops. The acreage report includes actual acres planted, versus the March estimate of planted acres. These numbers can vary for a number a reasons including the world economy and weather events.

The June planted Acreage report is a separate report from the monthly release of the USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). On June 9, 2011 the USDA WASDE estimated a monthly acreage reduction for corn and all wheat. However, the WASDE report did not estimate a reduction in soybeans. Each year dating back to 2000 and also including 1996, the USDA has not altered the number for all wheat acreage. The 1996 WASDE report is a good comparison because of weather similarities between 1996 and 2011. USDA lowered corn planting acreage in the June 2011 WASDE, as well as in the 2002 and 1996 WASDE reports. Subsequently, in 1996 and 2002, the WASDE report estimated an increase in soybeans.

When the USDA lowered the corn planted acreage in its WASDE report, the June Acreage report increased the acreage above the WASDE estimate in 2002 and 1996. In 1996, the acreage results were above the prospective acreage report for corn, soybeans and other spring wheat, even though wet weather created delayed plantings.

Of the 12 years identified from the Prospective Plantings to the Acreage reports, corn acreage increased 75 percent, soybeans decreased 58 percent and

other spring wheat remained the same.

MGEX welcomes your questions.........Joe Victor

www.mgex.com

800.827.4746

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