For the month of February, the November Soybean contract has seen an 18-day uptrend or a 51-cent move in the market. Many of us would have to say today’s close surprised us and will be wondering if it is a trend reversal or not. I still believe there are many factors driving soybeans such as weather in South America, the fact that many producers in Argentina have realized there may be more opportunities in the future to sell their soybeans if they store instead of selling off the combine, and the fact that we are coming into March and at these levels some producers may want to switch to beans.
Today the market broke through resistance at $11.74 and went as high as $11.82 clearing showing strength but in the last 15 minutes of trade, the market was back at $11.682 where it opened on the day. End of the month profit-taking and squaring off positions left the November soybean contract at $11.555 when it settled.
Now one must decide if November soybeans could have one more bounce prior to the March Prospective Planting Report or have we already bought 2 to 3 million acres at these levels? With the USDA projecting the on farm price of $9.75 at harvest, I would suggest decisions need to be made as to what price and when to sell soybeans.
November 2014 Soybeans
SOURCE: UMS Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.
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