The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Joseph Vaclavik is the president at Standard Grain in Chicago. Standard Grain provides futures and options brokerage to farms, feedlots, elevators, processors, end-users and traders. Visit www.standardgrain.com for more information.
The USDA is projecting another combined record soybean crop from Brazil and Argentina. A few thoughts:
1) South American weather risk, in regard to the market, is likely to the upside. Weather now is "good" for the most part.
2) Expect another round of "harvest pressure" every spring, as South America begins to outpace the US as the largest soybean producer globally.
3) Carry in the soybean market may slowly become a thing of the past; note that the Nov '13 and Jan '14 contracts are the highest-priced futures on the board. This is likely due to the expecation of a large South American harvest in March/April.
4) Export demand for US beans is very good now; the US has already sold a record amount of this year's bean crop into the export market. This demand will likely taper off when South American bean are available to importers like China.
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