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Standard Grain

RSS By: Joe Vaclavik

Joseph Vaclavik is the president at Standard Grain in Chicago. Standard Grain provides futures and options brokerage to farms, feedlots, elevators, processors, end-users and traders. Visit www.standardgrain.com for more information.

 

Beans Lead Rebound Overnight...

Mar 23, 2012

 

  • Grain markets higher overnight led by soybeans, which traded 15+ cents better in most contracts; Technical strength in beans remains intact while corn and wheat tread water in recent trading range
  • Outside markets providing minor support this morning with lower US$; Outside commodity markets mixed to slightly higher
  • USDA Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks reports will be issues one week from today at 7:30am CST; Most analysts looking for a corn acreage number somewhere near 95mil and a soybean acreage number in the 74.5-75.5mil range; Full pre-report estimates will be out next week
  • Argentina grain truckers agreed to lift their recent strike after almost all of their demands were met
  • Argentina government pegging their soybean crop at 44mmt and corn crop at 21.2mmt
  • US weekly beef exports surged to a 10-year high last week, nearly 25% of the exports went to drought-stricken Mexico
  • Some concern growing over dry conditions in W. Europe and the potential impact on the wheat crop there
  • Opening calls will be sharply higher for soybeans, 3-5 higher for corn and wheat
 
Corn bulls should still remain cautious despite the soy-led overnight rebound. We agree with those who have a positive outlook due to issues regarding old-crop corn stocks; however we also believe that monster new-crop acreage combined with favorable weather is more than enough to alleviate those concerns. The problem is that the crop hasn’t been planted, yet. The corn market should have the ability to hold together through the majority of the planting season. Yield will be the ultimate make-or-break factor down the road.


 
As always, call the office with questions or concerns.
Regards,
Joe Vaclavik
(312) 462-4438
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