Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for March 5, 2015 at 5:15 am.
Grain markets are mixed as the strong dollar provides headwinds. Traders are waiting for export sales data. Allendale Acreage Survey data will be released March 11.
Weekly export sales will be released at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are: wheat 350,000 to 550,000 tonnes, corn 700,000 to 1,000,000 tonnes, soybeans 300,000 to 500,000 tonnes, soymeal 50,000 to 225,000 tonnes and soyoil 5,000 to 20,000 tonnes.
The latest ethanol production numbers were 4% over last year. The year to date pace is 5.6% over last year. To meet USDA’s seemingly small goal for this year’s production we would have to run 0.9% under last year from here on out. As of now we have to say USDA’s corn for ethanol number still appears to be too low.
Russia's Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fyodorov suggests 2015 grain crop may come in at 100 million tonnes which is at the high end of a previous forecast range.
Brazil’s highways are clear of blockades which are allowing for soybeans, fuel and food to move to where it is needed. Ports are restocking as the next protest is set for next week.
Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:
CONAB will update Brazil’s production numbers next Tuesday, the same day the USDA will release their March Supply and Demand data.
U.S. crude stocks rose more than twice as much as trade was expecting last week, while gasoline stocks increased and distillate inventories fell, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 10.3 million barrels last week to 444.37 million barrel.
The US Dollar index remains strong ahead of employment data and quantitative easing in the EU. The stronger dollar is creating headwinds for US exports.
McDonald’s announced they would stop buying chicken fed human forms of antibiotics, over the next two years. Chipotle and Panera already say they serve chicken raised without antibiotics, but the announcement by McDonald's is notable because of its size; the company has more than 14,000 U.S. locations.
Cash cattle bids in the country are developing in the 156 to 157 area, however, feedlots are asking 162. Due to tight supplies of market ready cattle and winter weather conditions in feedlot areas traders are thinking packers will have to pay-up to get cattle this week. Beef values are mixed with choice down 1.03 and select up 1.95. The CME Feeder Index is 206.65.
Lean hog futures broke out of the recent narrow trading range. Support should develop on setbacks as product is showing signs of improvement. Pork cutout values are up .97.
Markets as of 5:15 AM CDT
- May Corn - 1/4
- May Beans 1 1/4
- May Wheat -2 1/4
- May Soymeal .90
- Mar Dlr .22
- Mar S&P 2.50
- Apr Crude .57
- Apr Gold -1.60
Technical Chart of the Day
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