Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for March 3, 2015 at 5:15 am.
Grain markets are steady to slightly higher after the sharp sell-off on Monday. Traders are looking for supportive news such as the truckers strike in Brazil, weather forecasts or outside markets.
Weekly export inspections showed the focus on loading corn as it outpaced expectations and soybean loadings were about a third less than a year ago.
South American harvest delays and movement of grain is still the focus of traders and headline watchers. Weather doesn’t seem to be a problem generally however harvest is being slowed in some areas.
Brazilian truckers are still protesting in some localized areas by slowing shipments of grain, fuel for harvesting and movement of meats. The major truckers union has settled their strike but nonunionized drivers are creating road blocks and disrupting traffic. Government officials have promised to reduce tolls on major highways.
Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:
Winter wheat conditions as reported by a few western states have deteriorated due to the sharp temperature fluctuations.
AgRural a consultancy in Brazil says sales of the 2014/15 soybean crop increased during February due to a weaker Brazilian currency, with 40 percent of the expected harvest sold. Yet sales were well behind last year’s pace of 57% sold at this time.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is forecast to be 29% completed compared to a 33% historical average. The later planting and recent truckers strike is slowing down harvest progress.
Argentina will keep an eye on how much soy is being hoarded on farms throughout the country by requiring that the sales of "silo-bags" be reported to tax authorities, according to a government resolution recently announced.
Morning Weather: Dry and cold initially over the HRW belt through Thursday. Then dry and warmer the rest of the 2 week period. In fact, temps go above normal for most of next week. Colder air reasserts itself around the 18th-19th.
Heavy snow potential comes into southern SRW areas from tomorrow night through Thursday. Snow totals could be substantial. Farther north, a little bit of moisture today, but in general, then dry and cold for the rest of the week, with moderating temps this weekend and next week. Read More Weather
Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said China had 274 million farmer-turned-laborers as of the end of 2014, and 168 million of them had moved to cities as migrant workers, according to their data.
Informa is expected to update their world production forecast later this morning.
The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed over the 5,000 level for the first time since March of 2000.
China informed Canada that they would impose temporary trade restrictions on Canadian beef and beef products in the wake of Canada’s discovery of mad cow disease earlier this month.
According to customs data, China imported 44,920 MT of fresh, frozen, chilled chicken products in Jan 2015 that fell 4.25% month on month but rose 17.63% year on year.
Currently US hog slaughter is running about 6% above a year ago when the Dec Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report suggested it should be closer to 3% increase. The March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs will give us details on whether they miscounted or the producer is getting current.
Technical traders are looking at the 70.00 area as resistance and the 66.00 area as the first level of support in April hogs. Pork cutout value is down .84.
Beef values have improved due to reduced meat flow. Choice beef is up 1.09 and select is down .12. The CME Feeder Index is 206.22.
Markets as of 5:15 AM CDT
- May Corn 2 1/2
- May Beans 1
- May Wheat 1/2
- May Soymeal 1.30
- Mar Dlr .05
- Mar S&P -2.00
- Apr Crude .71
- Apr Gold -.90
Technical Chart of the Day
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