Jul 24, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions| Sign UpLogin


The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Allendale Releases Corn Yield Estimate

Jul 24, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 24, 2014 at 5:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are higher as old crop soybeans lead the charge due to tight supplies and firm farmer holding. Corn and wheat are tagging along for the ride.

Rich Nelson releases Allendale’s estimate for US corn yield at 174.1 bushel per acre. He said "Our belief is that the trade is not trading a number this high." Talk to your Allendale Broker to get the strategies released at yesterday’s meeting.

The first 2 sessions have been well attended by traders and producers from all around the world. Remember it is not too late to get this information. The presentations were recorded and are available by clicking here.

8:00 AM Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

The final session of Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference "Summer Update" will start at 2:00 pm TODAY. Signup now!

Weekly export sale will be released at 7:30. Reuter’s survey estimates are:

              Trade estimates for      Trade estimates for

              2013-14                  2014-15:

Wheat         0                        350,000-550,000

Corn          300,000-500,000          400,000-600,000

Soybeans      150,000-250,000          1,200,000-1,450,000

Soymeal       50,000-150,000           150,000-250,000

Soyoil        0-20,000                 0-10,000

Ethanol production continues at an aggressive pace because of profitable crush. Last week ethanol production was 959,000 thousand barrels compared to previous week of 943,000.

Egypt had been tendering for wheat which they bought the cheapest priced from the Black Sea Region.

August grain options expire on Friday July, 25.

Cash grain bids were steady-lower on Wednesday with limited farmer selling. We are hearing farmers are taking the deferred pricing option (DP) which usually is not a bullish sign.

Scott O’Malia, a CFTC Commissioner announced on Monday he would leave his post on Aug. 8. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) said yesterday that he would become the trade group’s next chief executive officer on Aug. 18.

October live cattle put in a hook reversal on the charts, Wednesday. However the strong cash market is providing support and a retest of yesterday’s highs overnight. Technical support is the 20 day moving average of 154.30. August futures contract should be well supported as cash trade this week could be several dollars higher than a week ago. The USDA July 1 Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday afternoon.

Wall Street Journal survey:  

                    Average           Range

                    of estimates      of estimates

On-feed Jul 1       98.2              97.2- 99.2

Placed in Jun       95.6              91.9- 103.5

Marketed in Jun     98.1              97.0- 100.4

Beef values are mixed with choice down .21 and select was up 2.92. The CME Feeder index is 210.64.

Lean hog futures took a tumble yesterday. Market ready hog supplies are tight but not as tight as many traders thought. Hog carcass weights are 10 pounds heavier than last year which is making up for the numbers decline. The technical picture has turned weak and a close above Monday’s low of 111.15 in the October contract is needed to keep the uptrend intact. Pork cutout values are down 1.24.

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT          

  • Sep Corn   +2 1/2
  • Aug Beans   +14 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   +5 3/4
  • Aug Cattle  +1.87   
  • Aug Hogs    -.75
  • Sep Dlr     -.04
  • Sep S&P     +2.00
  • Sep Crude   -.33
  • Aug Gold   -4.70 

Chart of the Day

daily chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Grain Downtrend Hard To Break

Jul 23, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 23, 2014 at 5:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are steady to higher as bottom pickers are on the sidelines.

With the trend down in corn, soybeans and wheat the path of least resistance is lower. Markets are oversold and trade is looking for and expects a short covering rally. However without a dramatic shift in weather it is difficult for bulls to gather any momentum.

8:00 AM Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

Thanks to all who attended the weather portion of the Ag Leaders "Summer Update". Those who were unable to attend you can access the recorded session at your convenience.

Traders and analysts are trying to get a handle on just how big the corn crop could be. Rich Nelson will be discussing this issue in detail during today’s session of the Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference starting at 2:00 pm. Get access here.

August grain options expire on Friday July, 25.

The annual Wheat Quality Council hard red spring wheat tour started yesterday in Fargo, North Dakota. For three days scouts will sample fields across North Dakota, far western Minnesota and far northern South Dakota and the tour will wrap up in Fargo Thursday afternoon.

Doane’s crop tour of corn and soybeans suggests corn yield checks averaged 193 in western IL and topped 200 in southeast IA. They said these were the highest yields ever record during their field checks in that area.

From USDA’s Ukraine attaché: As of July 14, 2014, of the main agricultural crops grown in Ukraine, about 7.6 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat was harvested, a little over 4.3 MMT of barley, 13,000 MT of rye, as well as almost 0.9 MMT of rapeseed. At the same time corn, sunflower and soybeans were developing well and receiving plenty of moisture from regular rains.

Transportation cost for grain to the gulf is higher. Old crop soybean basis is firm on lack of farmer selling. Corn basis is steady.

EIA report this morning is expected to show further drawdown in crude oil inventory. US production of oil is at 27 year high.

Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday afternoon. Trade estimates are for On-Feed to come in at 98%, Placed at 96% and Marketed at 98%.

Fed cattle auction markets are firmer this week which leads to expectation of higher direct trade by end of week. Beef values are strong Tuesday afternoon with choice up 2.28 and select up 1.71. The CME Feeder Index is 210.48.

Lean hog futures reversed yesterday after breaking some key technical levels. The August contract sharp discount to cash index should provide support on setbacks. Pork cutout values are lower was down 1.15.

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT          

  • Sep Corn   + 3/4
  • Aug Beans   +2 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   +0
  • Aug Cattle  +.22    
  • Aug Hogs    -.90
  • Sep Dlr     -.03
  • Sep S&P     +3.75
  • Sep Crude   +.02
  • Aug Gold   +2.30

 

Chart of the Day

daily chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Can the National Corn Yield be 185 Bushels per Acre?

Jul 22, 2014

Grain futures are higher on bargain hunting in technically oversold markets.

Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

Crop conditions remain steady at 72% G/E for corn and Soybean conditions improve by 1% to 73% G/E.

Traders and analysts are trying to get a handle on just how big the corn crop could be. Rich Nelson will be discussing this issue in detail on Wednesday during the Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference "Summer Update" will start TODAY. Signup now!

What kind of yield adjustments will the USDA make on the August report? History suggests they will not give us the highest yield until the crop is harvested and in the bin.

Ryan Martin, Allendale’s Meteorologist and Branch Office Manager will discuss weather patterns and the likelihood of an early frost this afternoon as we start the conference series.

Export shipments for soybeans were 3.6 million bushel which is about one million less than last week. We need to ship 6 to 7 million bushels per week to meet USDA total export goal for soybeans. Corn exports are running short of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s estimate.

New crop corn bookings as of July 10 is about 64% of the pace set last year. It appears world buyers are waiting for the price to work even lower before they step in to buy.

Soybeans have seen China and other countries buy last week which suggests they are satisfied with current price levels. Currently export bookings for 2014/15 are near last year’s pace as of July 10.

Cattle on showlist are down 27,000 head from previous week. Cash trade is expected to be steady to higher as tight supply of market ready cattle is the driver. Beef values rebound on Monday as choice is up 2.07 and select is up 1.43. The CME Feeder Index is 210.88.

Hog slaughter for the week ending July 19 is down 8.90% from last year and total pork production is down only 3.97% for the same period. So far this year pork production is down only 1% compared to last year. Trade is expecting hog numbers to remain tight into Sep due to effects of PEDv. Pork cutout values were down 2.57.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Sep Corn   +1
  • Aug Beans   +11 1/2
  • Sep Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Aug Cattle  +.35    
  • Aug Hogs    -.02
  • Sep Dlr     +.18
  • Sep S&P     +6.25
  • Aug Crude   +.57
  • Aug Gold   -6.10

 

Chart of the Day

daily chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Weather Changes Needed to Shift Price Trends

Jul 21, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 21, 2014 at 5:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are lower as weather conditions remain excellent for a potential bumper crop of corn and soybeans. Seasonal heat is on the way this week, but the forecast does not see it staying around very long.

Allendale’s newest long-term weather outlook, grain and livestock price outlooks, and trade strategies will be released this week in our Ag Leaders Conference Series. Sign up to take part.

Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

Traders and analysts are preparing yield estimates for the August USDA report and they are rising. Many estimates are now above 170 bushels per acre for corn.

Transportation issues in the US are pushing export prices higher and bringing Argentina back into the competitive mix.

Trade is expecting crop conditions to be steady to better this afternoon. That would be counter seasonal as crops begin to mature.

The CFTC Commitment of traders show managed money funds reducing long positions by 14,499 to a net long position of 93,101 in corn. In soybeans they sold 8,310 to leave them net short 6,089 contracts. Funds are now net short 46,495 contracts in wheat.

Negotiations between Argentina’s government and striking workers in the Rosario grains hub were scheduled for Friday but pushed back until today. The major Port of Rosario remains paralyzed.

Ukraine blames Russia for helping destroy airliner crash evidence. More sanctions will be imposed on Russia on Tuesday. The question remains, will Putin buckle or will he provide more support to the separatist?

Beef values are lower with choice down 1.36 and select down 1.59 on Friday. The CME Feeder Index is 214.48.

Cattle traders will have the July Cattle-on-Feed report this week. We are approaching the summer period where beef demand struggles. Futures traders are anticipating this slowdown in demand but cash prices continue to stay firm due to tight supplies.

"There has been a lot of talk in the industry about falling hog weights. It is true weights fell from 215 dressed out in May down to 211 currently. What has not been addressed correctly is that this is a normal seasonal issue. Weights normally bottom from late July through August. In actuality we have done nothing to address the real problem. Weights were 5% over last year a few weeks ago and are 5% over last year right now," says Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist.

Pork cutout values closed out the week up .47.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference "Summer Update" will start tomorrow. Signup now!

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT          

  • Sep Corn   -5 1/4   
  • Aug Beans   -5 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   -6
  • Aug Cattle  Steady-Lower     
  • Aug Hogs    Steady
  • Sep Dlr     +.00
  • Sep S&P     -2.75
  • Aug Crude   +.02
  • Aug Gold   +5.80

 

Chart of the Day

daily chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Heat on the Way for Next Week

Jul 18, 2014

 Heat on the way for next week

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 18, 2014 at 5:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are mixed with old crop higher on tight supplies. Warmer weather is on the way next week. Some are trying to spin it as bullish other are suggesting it is what the crop needs to reach maturity.

8:00 AM Update - daily Morning Coffee commentary:

Cash corn basis was weaker on Thursday and farmer selling was light around the Midwest. The prices are unattractive for North Dakota producers where basis is 1.20 to 1.30 under September futures.

Ryan Martin, Allendale’s Chief Meteorologist will be giving the first presentation at the Ag Leaders Conference "Summer Update". You also can listen to his daily forecast by clicking here. His morning blog on weather is available as a FREE subscription. Review It today!

All work was at a standstill as multiple strikes paralyzed all grain exports from Argentina's Rosario export hub on Thursday. The Argentine grain inspectors in the agricultural export hub lifted their strike over wages due to a government request. However other unions are still on strike.

Funds bought a net 6,000 wheat contracts, were even in corn, sold 5,000 in soybeans on Thursday.

Argentine Agriculture Ministry says forecasts 2013/14 corn harvest is 33 mmt vs their June estimate of 32.1 mmt. They are looking for the 2013/14 soybean harvest to be 53 mmt vs June estimate of 54 mmt.

(Reuters) - An impasse between U.S.-based Monsanto Co MON.N and soybean buyers in Brazil over royalty payments on a new seed technology may complicate the country's sales of the upcoming oilseed crop.

Microsoft announced it will lay off nearly 18,000 people in the next 6 months. This equates to nearly 15% of its workforce as the new Microsoft CEO is taking the first step to building the right organization.

Pew Research Center says about 23.6% of people age 25 to 34 live with their parents, grandparents or both. That’s up from 18.7% in 2007, just prior to the global financial crisis and from 11% in 1980.

Cow slaughter continues to run 15 to 20% below a year ago levels due to excellent pasture conditions and profitability of cow-calf operation. Feeder cattle prices at record high prices are huge incentive for building cow herds.

Cash cattle traded in TX and CO at 155 and 157.50 respectively. Volume was light with no sales reported in KS. Beef values were mixed with choice down 1.01 and select up 1.38. The CME Feeder Index is 214.11.

Nearby lean hog futures closed below the 20 day moving average for the second time and found support at the 50 day average. A lower close today could accelerate the downward bias. The Pork cutout value is up 1.20.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference "Summer Update" will start on Tuesday. Signup now!

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT          

  • Sep Corn   -1 1/2   
  • Aug Beans   +4 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   -5 1/4
  • Aug Cattle  -.27    
  • Aug Hogs    -.55
  • Sep Dlr     +.02
  • Sep S&P     +1.00
  • Aug Crude   +.28
  • Aug Gold   -5.50

 

Chart of the Day

daily chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

Hot Links & Cool Tools

    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  

facebook twitter youtube View More>>
 
 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions