Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for January 13, 2017.
Grain markets are lower as traders even positions after yesterday's USDA data release. With the reports out of the way, weather forecasts, South America, and US planting estimates will take focus.
Our Annual Ag Leaders Outlook Conference will answer the big questions remaining after the USDA data. The three-day conference will cover fundamentals, technicals, and price outlooks based on the facts for corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle, and hogs. Viewers will also receive a technical review of each commodity, and all this data will be pulled together with specific trade strategies. Click here for more details.
USDA's mass data release yesterday included December 1 corn grain stocks at 12,384 million bushels (vs. 12,300 estimate), soybeans at 2,895 (vs. 2,935), and wheat at 2,073 (vs. 2,056). Ending stocks were reported at 2,355 million bushels (vs. 2,398), soybeans at 420 (vs. 465), and wheat at 1,186 (vs. 1,152). Corn and soybean yields and production were both lower than expected as well.
Winter wheat seedings were estimated at 32.383 million acres (vs. 34.139 estimate, and 36.137 last year). This estimate represents a 108 year low for winter wheat seedings, and was far below the average guess. Get complete coverage of the reports here.
Weekly export sales covering the period from December 29 - January 5 were also released yesterday. Soybean export sales totaled 291,897 (348,897 tonnes 2016/17 and 57,000 tonnes of net cancellations for 2017/18), under the 500,000 - 800,000 trade expectation. We have sold 87% of USDA's whole-year goal. That is over the 82% five year average pace.
Weekly corn sales they counted 755,002 metric tonnes (603,302 2016/17 151,700 2017/18). That will be considered neutral as it was within the 500,000 - 800,000 trade expectation. Corn sales are doing well as we have sold 64% of USDA's whole-year expectation. That is over the five year average pace by now of 59%.
Wheat export sales in the most recent week were noted at 390,960 tonnes, all current crop. That was neutral as it was within the 250,0000 - 475,000 trade expectation. We have sold 81% of USDA's whole-year expectation. That is just over the 79% five year expectation.
Prevented Plantings for January 4, 2017 were reported at 1.052 million acres of corn, .237 million acres of soybeans, and 1.787 million acres of wheat. Not surprisingly, the numbers were unchanged from last month.
Corn planting's are being delayed by heavy rains in Argentina's northern and central growing regions according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. 91% of the corn crop is already planted, however.
The Climate Prediction Center estimates that La Nina conditions will end in February. They see neutral ENSO readings for the first half of the year.
Ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 43% compared to gasoline according to a new study by the USDA.
Managed Money Funds were buyers of 12,000 soybean contracts, 11,500 wheat, 5,500 soymeal, and 1,000 soyoil in yesterday's USDA-data-driven trade. They were estimated sellers of 6,500 corn contracts.
Allendale’s three-day conference event will begin on Tuesday, January 24th at 2:00 PM followed by two 1 hour session (approximate) each day. Drew Lerner’s (Live Only) presentation will begin at approximately 2:00 pm on Tuesday. Click here for more details.
USDA added 405 million lbs. to its 2017 pork production estimate. They went from a projection of 3.5% more pork to now 5.1% more this year.
Beef production was lowered from a 3.2% growth estimate to now 2.9%. With some minor changes to imports and exports they see per capita supply pushed on the US consumer at 56.1 lbs. That is the biggest supply offering in four years.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down .29 and select down 1.40. The CME Feeder Index is 132.60. Pork cutout value is down 1.31.
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