Good morning! Today is September 18, 2014 at 5:30 AM.

Grains futures are trading mixed with corn and wheat lower, and soybeans higher.

Traders Focus Today: Weekly export sales, outside markets, and geopolitical events.

Two topics that trade will begin to turn their attention to are South American weather, and the September 30th USDA reports – both are topics that will be discussed in our Tuesday, September 23rd Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar, Sign up Now!

Winter Wheat Planting Progress

 

Winter Wheat Planting Progress

 

Weather forecasts for the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day are calling for normal to above normal temps and below normal rainfall.

This should help finish out soybeans and allow producers to get into fields and continue to harvest what is shaping up to be a record crop. Current yields that we are hearing are coming in-between 60 and 90 b/a.

Corn harvest results continue to look impressive as well, but for many areas moisture remains too high for wide-scale harvest reports. The current forecast looks to be beneficial to corn as well.

Allendale continues to hear of more winter wheat planters moving and estimate that planting progress remains inline with the five year average.

EIA Ethanol stocks data showed a gain in ethanol stocks to 18.9 vs. 18.0 last week.

Trade is anticipating further announcements of soybean sales purchased when the Chinese delegation was in the U.S. to sign a memorandum to purchases 4.8 mmt of beans. It was announced yesterday that China bought 620,000 tonnes of beans which were likely part of the memorandum deal. This leaves room for more purchase announcements.

Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

 

 

Trade estimates for the weekly export sales due out at 7:30 AM:

                       2013-14                  2014-15

Wheat                      N/A          450,000-650,000

Corn                       N/A          550,000-750,000

Soybeans                   N/A      1,100,000-1,400,000

Soymeal               0-25,000          100,000-250,000

Soyoil         (-5,000)-10,000                 0-20,000

Yesterday,  the FOMC maintained their commitment to near-zero interest rates for a "considerable time". The US Dollar made new highs on the news, continuing it’s recent uptrend. A strong Dollar is usually seen as bearish to commodities as our goods become more expensive to world buyers as the value of the Dollar increases.

Markets are also awaiting news out of Scotland as voters there are deciding to either become independent, or remain with the United Kingdom. A vote to leave the UK could pressure the British Pound and possibly fuel the Dollar Bulls further.

Cattle traders are looking forward to tomorrow afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report. Allendale sees Placements at 5.2% smaller than last year. This would be a new record low for any previous August (read the entire release).

Beef prices have been falling for five days now. Compared with the peaks last week choice beef is down 5.43 while select is off 5.47. Packers will not be looking to buy cattle at steady money this week. Additionally, the trade now accepts the idea of lower cash prices into October.

In last night’s On-the-Go, Rich Nelson noted, "Cash hog and pork prices rallied since late August on the start of the procurement for October’s National Pork Month. For a period of time we were also seeing fewer hogs than expected. Each of those issues may be changing…"read more in last night’s Lean Hog commentary.

Technical Chart of the Day

daily chart

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