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June 2012 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

For the First Time, Grains Trade through a Major Report

Jun 29, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 29, 2012 at 5:15 am. Corn and soybean futures are higher. Support is coming from outside markets and pre-report tension. Only a few hours away from what some call the biggest USDA report of the year. The open outcry markets open at 7:20 this morning due to the USDA report. Trade estimate for planted acres in corn is 95.962 million acres, in March the USDA had estimated 95.864 million acres. Soybean acres estimate is 75.575 million acres compared to 73.902 million acres. The quarterly stocks data has the trade estimating 3.182 billion bushel for corn and 640 million bushel for soybeans. A year ago on June 1st the inventory for corn 3.670 and 619 million bushel for beans. Wheat estimate is 726 compared to 862 million bushel a year ago. Weather forecast has added a little more rain from the second week of model runs. The 5 day forecast has high temps and low percentage chances of rain for the cornbelt. Macro markets are reacting to the EU leader’s announcement of changes to the banking system. This has caused the euro to rally which is pressuring the dollar. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released this afternoon at 2:00 pm. Trade guesses as a percentage of as year ago are: All hogs 101.3, Kept for Breeding 100.7, and 101.3 for Market hogs. Cattle and hog futures are have bounced yesterday due the heat effects on livestock production. Cash cattle are still at a stand-off. Boxed beef is lower with choice down 1.81 and select down .01. Pork cutout values were down 3.41. Stay tuned and get the recap of the report on the "Morning Coffee" on YouTube. We will be updating as quickly as possible after the 7:30 release of data.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Jly Corn    +12 1/2
Jly Beans   +10
Jly Wheat   +8
Aug Cattle +.42
Jly Hogs    -.10
Sep S&P     +16.25
Sep Dlr     -.77
Auq Crude   +2.04
Aug Gold    +18.60
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s inside range day does imply a lack of conviction at the top of the move in Dec. Wheat. A close above the pivot high of $7.83 ¼ would imply continued higher pricing. A break below the 6/22/12 $6.95 ½ low would negate the uptrend.
 

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Thursday’s USDA Export Sales Report showed 290 tmt of corn were sold for the week ending 6/21. This was below industry estimates of 300-500 tmt. The target for USDA’s yearly export sales continues to be revised lower as sales of corn continue to disappoint due to competitive feed wheat and South American prices.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Will Weather Trump USDA Report?

Jun 28, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 28, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are higher this morning. The weather is trumping all other news stories as we approach Friday’s report. Drew Lerner of World weather Inc. says, "The bottom line remains one of concern regarding the dry bias in place across the lower Midwest. With the exception of rain predicted July 5-6 the region from Kansas to southwestern Ohio and southward to the Delta and Tennessee River Basin have little chance for significant rain leaving crops severely stressed and vulnerable to further production cuts. Northern Midwest weather will continue most favorable for crop development." The demand side of the equation is starting to raise its head but getting very little attention. These issues will affect the price of corn once supply can be stabilized. We had Valero Energy group close down another 110 million gallon ethanol production facility citing high corn prices and low ethanol prices. Brazil continues to be a very aggressive in the export market with their cash corn being offered more than $30 cheaper than US corn. These factors are being overshadowed by the USDA planted acreage due to be released on Friday morning. Average trade estimates for corn planting is for a slight increase from the USDA March estimate. Trade is expecting soybean acres to increase by more than 1.5 million more than the March USDA number. Weekly export sales data will be released at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are: corn 300 to 500 tmt, soybeans 500 to 700 tmt, wheat 450 to 650 tmt. Tomorrow is first notice day for July contract in grains. The pork industry has an important USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Friday afternoon. Traders will be looking for signs of further herd liquidation as breakeven is deep in the red due to the rise in corn and meal prices. Pork cutout was up .10 on Wednesday. Cash cattle trade is at a standstill with feedlots expecting to see trade 1.00 to 2.00 higher than last week. Packing plants will be working on Saturday due to the holiday next week. Boxed beef was slightly higher with choice up .19 and select up .10. Thanks again to Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc. for participating in the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar. You can listen to the recorded webinar by clicking this link Ag Leaders Webinar.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +10 1/2
Jly Beans   +6 1/2
Jly Wheat   -1
Aug Cattle +.42
Jly Hogs    -.12
Sep S&P     -7.25
Sep Dlr     +.03
Auq Crude   -.19
Aug Gold    -9.20
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s very impressive rally in Oct. Cattle has many factors implying a potential bottom in prices. 1. Less momentum to the down side over the last 8 trading sessions, 2.Finding an area where buyers were present in the past in this case the BSE bottom. And lastly taking out four days of selling in one session implies that buyers are present at this level. Of course a close below yesterdays $119.65 once again opens up the downside to potential losses.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Allendale’s guest for Tuesday’s monthly webinar, Drew Lerner, told us this year is running parallel with weather patterns of 1976. In this year, Allendale corn yields fell by 7% from that year’s trend yield. Taken off this year’s 161.4, that would imply yields at 150.1. Drew clearly told us this was not the nationwide disaster years of 1983 or 1988.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Traders Get Positioned for USDA Report

Jun 27, 2012

 

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 27, 2012 at 5:05 am. Corn and soybean futures are mixed this morning as corn sets new highs for the recent move. The supply side of the equation is still the focus. Many traders are concerned about crop stress over the next few days where triple digit temperatures move through a very parched Midwest. The GFS weather model put more rain in the forecast for July 4th through July 11th. However meteorologists are struggling to pinpoint where this moisture is coming from and are in disagreement with the model. We expect some evening of positions ahead of the USDA report on Friday morning. Corn basis for domestic use and export is softening. Export business for US corn has competition from South America. Margin clerks will have their input as the end of month and end of quarter nears. The CME increased margin requirements for most grain futures which takes effect today. The EU leader summit scheduled for later this week is not given much hope for any concrete decisions on their financial crisis. Boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday with choice up 1.31 and select up .19. Pork cutout fell 1.83. Livestock futures are struggling with the weight of the world’s economic situation and battling higher feed costs and poor profit margins. Thanks to all who attended the Ag Leaders webinar last evening. The recorded session will be available online tomorrow morning.
 
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Jly Corn    +5 1/2
Jly Beans   +13 1/4
Jly Wheat   -3 1/2
Aug Cattle +.12
Jly Hogs    -.45
Sep S&P     +1.25
Sep Dlr     +.01
Auq Crude   -.24
Aug Gold    -4.90
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s price action creates a scenario in which longs could have a false sense of security. A close below the $92.50 level could create a scenario in which we correct lower with support at the $91.00 level.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report showed corn ratings for the good and excellent categories fell 7% to now 56%. This was lower than the trade’s expectation for a 2% decline. This is the second lowest rating for this particular week since USDA began this system in 1986.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Corn Conditions Drop 7% This Week

Jun 26, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 26, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are mixed. We are seeing some profit taking after yesterday’s sharp rally. How many different ways can we write about the weather? It is dry to extremely dry in much of the Midwest. There will be a blast of heat moving across the corn and soybean growing areas later this week. Just in time for the peak pollination of the early planted corn. Crop conditions fell sharply for corn. G/E was down 7% to 56% and the states of IN and IL fell to 27% and 37%, respectively. Soybean conditions fell by 3% nationally to 53%. IN and IL had ratings of 24% and 35% G/E. The weather models have been very inconsistent which has traders and producers waiting to see the rain before they get their hopes up. Rich Nelson says this could be the 3rd warmest growing season in recent years. Rich will discuss the details of his yield study tonight in the Ag Leaders Webinar. Futures put in a strong performance on Monday with funds buying 21,000 contracts of corn, 12.000 contracts of soybeans and 8,000 contracts of wheat. Commodity markets other than grains have been under selling pressure due to the macro-economic issues in the EU. The Greek Finance Minister resigned after 4 days on the job and the EU Leaders summit this weekend is expected to result in rhetoric and no substance. We have an important economic report each day this week and the big USDA Acreage Report on Friday morning. Cattle futures have been under pressure as dry weather drives herds into feedyards. Boxed beef was slightly lower on Monday with choice down .20 and select down .06. Pork carcass values continue to grind higher as it was up .48. Sign up now and send questions you have for Drew Lerner and Rich Nelson in the LIVE webinar at 8:00 pm this evening.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +4 1/4
Jly Beans   -2
Jly Wheat   -13 1/2
Aug Cattle +.02
Jly Hogs    -.20
Sep S&P     +3.75
Sep Dlr     -.16
Jly Crude   +.10
Aug Gold    -3.50
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s breakaway gap higher opening in the Nov. Soybeans has leaped the $14.00 hurdle that has kept a lid on this market to this point. Since this is new contract highs zero levels of resistance exist to slow this market down going forward. The $14.00 level is now old resistance turned support that should put a floor under this market going forward.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Allendale’s model suggests the states of Illinois (#2) and Indiana (#5) are in active early pollination. The hot and dry 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts give guidance all the way out to July 8. We had expected yields, which were 159.7 on June 11 to fall to 153 by July 9. We will now have to lower than expectation.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grains Sharply Higher on No Rain

Jun 25, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 25, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are sharply higher. The rain that was forecast for the Midwest over the weekend was less than expected. The next 10 days are mostly dry with a slight chance for the cornbelt this Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are expected to have highs near 100 by mid-week. This week is loaded with potential excitement other than weather. The EU ministers are having another summit to deal with their financial problems. Traders will be watching for the Supreme Court’s decision on Obamacare. We will end the week with what may be the biggest report of the year, Planted Acreage and Quarterly Stocks. Managed money increased long positions by 27,691 contracts in corn and 4,598 in soybeans. It seems as though they have plenty of buying potential left. Traders are expecting corn and soybeans conditions to decline by 2 to 3% in this afternoon’s crop conditions report. Cash corn basis is under pressure as South American corn is currently lower priced. Soybean basis is firm as there is more talk of Brazil running out of exportable beans. The Cattle on Feed report released on Friday was considered a little negative to price. The trade was looking for a 13% increase in feedlot placements during May and USDA counted 15.3% more. Marketing’s were less than expected therefore putting total On Feed numbers a little higher than the trade was thinking. Cash cattle traded down 2 to 3 dollars for the week on Friday. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .58 and select up .13. Hog markets remain strong due to tight market ready supplies. Pork cutout value was up 2.35 on Friday. Cattle futures are expected to open lower due to reaction to COF report while lean futures should be supported. Don’t miss the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26, tomorrow evening. Get all the details at www.Allendale-inc.com.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +19 1/2
Jly Beans   +35 1/2
Jly Wheat   +21 1/4
Aug Cattle Lower
Jly Hogs    stdy-hgr
Sep S&P     -10.75
Sep Dlr     +.31
Jly Crude   -.81
Aug Gold    +.02
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Friday’s trade has left the market confused going in to next week. We see a set up of three higher closes that met sellers which implies a loss of momentum at higher prices plus an outside range day that also implies loss of momentum at these levels. However until we see a close below the 6/19 low of $5.36 ¼ we should see sideways to higher trading range.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Moody’s rating agency downgraded 15 international banks yesterday. The downgraded firms included Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Royal Bank of Scotland. In the previous two days some suggest outside money was liquidating positions ahead of this announcement.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Tug-of-War Continues between Macros and Weather

Jun 22, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 22, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are higher with clear skies across cornbelt. As we enter the last few hours of trading for this week, traders are dealing with many forces. The selloff yesterday was led by macro influences such as a slowdown is China’s economy and more Euro problems. Weather was not supportive as a cluster of clouds and rain was moving through IL into IN. However the long-term forecasting models have reduced the moisture for the next 10 days. We are in a weather market where slight changes in forecast or clouds showing up on radar will swing trader’s confidence. In reality, the dry areas of southern IL and IN will have sizeable yield loss if it is 10 days before they receive rain. Can the northwestern cornbelt compensate for these losses in ECB? How will the USDA adjust corn acres on next Friday’s planted acreage report? The July grain options expire today. Argentina truckers have gone on strike for 3 days as winter arrives. Soymeal continues to provide support to the soy complex as demand for the protein increases due to ethanol plant closures and less DDG production. US soybeans are competitive in the world markets however US corn is higher priced than South America. Senate passes the farm bill which now goes to the House for debate. Boxed beef values were lower with choice down .77 and select down .23. Cash markets are still at a standstill. USDA Monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon. Trade estimates are On Feed 100.6, Placed 113 and Marketed 104.9. The placement could be a surprise as poor pasture conditions sent cattle to feedlot. Pork demand is excellent as cutout values were up 1.44 on Thursday. Lean Hog futures are indicating overbought condition which suggests some profit taking could occur at any time. Don’t miss the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26. Get all the details at www.Allendale-inc.com.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +11
Jly Beans   +14 1/2
Jly Wheat   +11 3/4
Aug Cattle -.07
Jly Hogs    -.30
Sep S&P     +5.25
Sep Dlr     +.04
Jly Crude   +.45
Aug Gold    +4.0
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s break of the consolidation range in the Aug Crude Oil has set the stage for what could be a new leg lower in the bear trend. However, due to the impulsiveness and location of today’s price action on the chart, a blow off bottom maybe occurring?

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The government’s weather agency updates long term forecasts once per month. The new July forecast calls for above normal temps in IA, IL, NE, MO, and SD and below normal precip for IA, IL, IN, MO, and E NE. The July/August/September forecast calls for above normal temps for the Cornbelt and also normal precip. This morning’s monthly update would suggest further yield declines.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Radar Maps Show System Weakening

Jun 21, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 21, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are lower on profit taking and hope of rain. Weather markets are volatile and retracements are normal. Markets should be well supported on setbacks until a good rain covers dry areas. The GFS model added more moisture to the northwestern cornbelt while reducing the rainfall in the IN and OH. World Weather Inc. is still looking for some moisture to fall over the cornbelt but not enough to replenish depleted soil conditions. July options expire on Friday with the most open interest at the 6.00 strike price. The Fed announcements yesterday were basically status quo. However, they are going to extend Operation Twist until the end of the year which was supposed to end at the end of the month. Macro markets are having a tug-o-war with weather and you have to give the advantage to weather. This morning the USDA will give us the weekly export sales number. Trader estimates are for corn 450 to 650 tmt, soybeans 700 to 950 tmt, and wheat 300 to 500 tmt. Traders are talking about next week’s Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres Report which will likely create a lot of volatility. Starting Monday the open outcry market at the CME will open at 9:30 am and close at 2:00 pm. However on days where there is a major USDA report the Open Outcry will open at 7:20 am. Cattle on feed report will be released on Friday and traders are talking about the placement figure. Will we see larger placements due to poor pasture conditions? Cash cattle trade is at a standstill with very light demand. Choice beef was up .06 and select was down .81. Pork futures are overbought and pork cutout value was down .39 on Wednesday. Don’t miss the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26. Get all the details at www.Allendale-inc.com.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    -4 1/4
Jly Beans   -6 1/2
Jly Wheat   -5 1/4
Aug Cattle -.30
Jly Hogs    -.05
Sep S&P     -4.00
Sep Dlr     +.01
Jly Crude   -.95
Aug Gold    -15.60
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s impressive strength in the July Wheat contract has cleared all levels of technical resistance except the key 5/21/12 pivot high of $7.22. If we do see a correction, the July Wheat should be supported by the last two weeks confluence of lows between $6.07-$6.13 1/2.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
India announced it would sell 3 million tonnes of wheat from government stocks to domestic buyers. This comes as its talks to sell wheat to Iran have gone nowhere. We cannot say this is a new effort to liquidate its bulging stocks situation. It is more likely the government trying to make enough room before new crop comes in.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crop Deterioration Leads Weather Market

Jun 20, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 20, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are mixed as some profit taking is seen in corn after a sharp 2 day rally. We are in the midst of the 2012 weather market for Midwest crops. The weather forecasts are limiting the amount of rain for the eastern cornbelt for the next 10 days. Traders are convinced now they will only believe it can rain when they see it raining. World Weather Inc. says, "… The bottom line remains one of concern over below-average soil moisture and precipitation occurring in much of the Midwest during the coming week to ten days, but of special interest remains in the lower parts of the region where rainfall is not expected to be great enough to fix long term moisture deficits or induce much improvement for those crops suffering the most from dryness.  There will be sufficient rainfall to slow drying rates and help reduce some of the crop stress, but greater rain will still be needed. The cool off that occurs in the eastern United States late this weekend and early next week helps to set the stage for rain later next week because of the warm, moist air that is expected to overrun the cooler and drier air that will be present this weekend …" The G20 Leaders meeting is over and they agreed to commit about $456 billion to the International Monetary Fund. We are hearing more slowdowns or closings of ethanol plants in the western cornbelt due to poor margins and problems procuring corn. Traders are already expecting a further decline in crop conditions next week. July option expiration is this Friday and the USDA report is next Friday morning. First notice day on July futures at the CME is also next Friday, June 29. (Reuters) Funds bought 20,000 corn contracts, 12,000 beans and 4,000 wheat on Tuesday. Cash cattle bids are 114 to 116 with offers at 120. Boxed beef was higher on Tuesday with choice up .45 and select up.43. Pork cutout was up 3.08. Tight cash hog supplies are supporting futures although very overbought. Don’t miss the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26. Get all the details at www.Allendale-inc.com.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +1 3/4
Jly Beans   +11 1/4
Jly Wheat   + 1/4
Aug Cattle +.32
Jly Hogs    -.12
Sep S&P     -.50
Sep Dlr     -.05
Jly Crude   -.18
Aug Gold    -9.20
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s impressive day of strength has now put the $14.00 level that has capped this market in the crosshairs. If we see a close above the $14.00 it would be irresponsible to imply any level that this market may find resistance. If we do see a correction from this level the 6/14/12 pivot low of $13.02 ¼ must hold in order to keep the bull market intact.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The extended forecast has sharply changed. The entire Cornbelt is forecast for above normal temps and below normal precip. The worst areas will be Indiana, Ohio, and much of Illinois.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weather Dominant Story For Grains

Jun 19, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 19, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are higher as weather stays dry. Most weather forecasts have taken out the rain through central Midwest which will mean more crop stress. Pop up showers will continue to be beneficial for those under and around those cells to the north of I80. Several ethanol plants in eastern Nebraska are splitting up production time to 2 weeks on and 2 weeks off or closing completely due to corn availability. This is causing cattle feeders to find corn to replace DDGs. Extreme weather conditions are causing other issues such as root worm in tasseling corn to spider mites in soybeans. USDA says the corn crop is in 63% G/E compared to 66% last week. Soybeans are 56% compared to 60% last week. The G20 will end their meetings today and likely without any significant decisions. The Fed meeting minutes, which will be released on Wednesday, should be ripped apart to find any indication of QE3. Trade analysts are adjusting their estimates and calculations for the June 29 planted acreage report and quarterly stock numbers. This should be a market mover, get positioned early as possible. Boxed beef prices were lower on Monday, choice down .51 and select down .51. Pork cutout was up .21 yesterday. Bull spreading in lean hog futures is due to tight supplies of market ready hogs. Don’t miss the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26. Get all the details at www.Allendale-inc.com.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +8 1/4
Jly Beans   +25 1/4
Jly Wheat   +9 3/4
Aug Cattle -.05
Jly Hogs    +.05
Sep S&P     +2.25
Sep Dlr     -.17
Jly Crude   -.10
Aug Gold    +6.40
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The extended forecast has sharply changed. The entire Cornbelt is forecast for above normal temps and below normal precip. The worst areas will be Indiana, Ohio, and much of Illinois.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greek Elections Calming, but There's Work to Do

Jun 18, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 18, 2012 at 5:00 am. Corn and soybean futures are higher. The weekend provided some relief as many areas received rain and the Greek election went with pro-austerity. There is much work that has to be done in Greece now to stabilize the economy. The French elections went solidly behind the socialist leader. Spain’s bond yields have hit 7% and the G20 leaders will meet today and tomorrow in Mexico. We also have the FOMC meetings tomorrow and Wednesday. With all of these events, the headlines are sure to be market movers. The weather forecast does not look good for the areas that which received little or no rain over the weekend. Crop stress will increase this week with higher temps. However the longer term forecast is improving chances of rain in the eastern Corn Belt next week. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .17 and select down .85. Pork cutout was up 2.54 on Friday. We would expect livestock to open higher on buying support from outside markets. Expect to see support in grain futures as weather forecast provides support. The Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26 will answer specific questions on production and acreage before the USDA report, sign up today. Morning Coffee will be updated by 8:00 am
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Jly Corn    +3 1/4
Jly Beans   +10
Jly Wheat   +6 3/4
Aug Cattle stdy-hgr
Jly Hogs    stdy-hgr
Sep S&P     -2.25
Sep Dlr     +.06
Jly Crude   -.07
Aug Gold    -4.2
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Today's outside range day down does imply further weakness. If we do see a close below the extremely important $5.00 level this market could be subject to further losses. Allendale Inc. continues to advise a priced stance in Dec corn for producers.
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Starting next week the market will hear of more reports of pollination for Kentucky, Missouri, Southern Illinois, and Southern Indiana. Corn wants to see low temperatures, adequate soil moisture, and normal precipitation during this time. For those new to trading grains, the three to four week period of nationwide pollination determines up to 50% of total yield.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Greek Elections Set Stage For Wild Open Sunday

Jun 15, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 15, 2012 at 5:00 am. Corn and soybean futures are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Very strong cash corn basis is helping support old crop/new crop corn spreads. Spread adjusting will likely be the focus ahead of weekend macro events. On Thursday afternoon, after the grain markets closed, central banks from major economies said they are ready to provide liquidity and prevent a credit squeeze if the outcome of the Greek election causes problems in stability. Export sales for corn were the lowest for the old crop marketing year. Brazil's grain industry association Abiove said on Thursday in its May estimates the 2011/12 soybean crop that the final harvest would be 66.2 million tonnes, up from the 65.9 million tonnes forecast in April. Funds were buyers of an estimated 10,000 CBOT corn contracts and 2,000 contracts of wheat. They sold 6,000 contracts of soybeans on Thursday. World Weather Inc. says, "…The bottom line still provides net drying and increasing crop stress late this week and into early next week as high pressure builds up across the Midwest briefly. Relief then comes later next week and into the following weekend with rain falling in many key crop areas at one time or another. Resulting rainfall in the second week outlook was still advertised too light to seriously improve crop and field conditions without follow up rain , but that may eventually change in time…" Change in weather forecast will be watched closely going into the close today. Be prepared for volatility as we close out this week of trading. Cash cattle traded 3.00 to 4.00 lower this week at 118 to 119 in TX and KS. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday, choice up .41 and select down .07. Pork cutout was up 2.35 on Thursday. Live hog supplies are expected to be tight for a few more weeks. Nearby futures closed at levels not seen since March 15, 2012. The Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26 will answer specific questions on production and acreage before the USDA report, sign up today. Morning Coffee will be updated by 8:00 am
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Jly Corn    + 1/4
Jly Beans   +7 1/2
Jly Wheat   +1 1/2
Aug Cattle -.12
Jly Hogs    -.12
Sep S&P     +4.50
Sep Dlr     -.25
Jly Crude   +.70
Aug Gold    +4.00
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s July Crude Oil chart has created a bullish set up. The price action has created an equal and opposite pattern which is a rejection pattern which would imply higher prices if the 6/7/12 $87.03 pivot high is taken out we could create a sharp recovery in the July Crude.
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
NOPA, the industry group for the US oilseed crushing industry, estimates May soybean crush totaled 138.266 million bushels. This was over estimates of 135.1. More important to us, this is up a sharp 15% over last year. If crush runs just 5% over last year in June, July, and August, which is a conservative number, Allendale estimates crush will end 17 million bushels over USDA latest.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Traders Tense Ahead of Macro Events

Jun 14, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 14, 2012 at 5:30 am. Corn and soybean futures are mixed as soybeans continues to decline. Traders are adjusting positions as the next 2 weeks are filled with key events. This morning we have the Weekly Export Sales, the Greek Parliamentary Election this weekend, G20 Meeting in Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. By the time we trade through these reports will we be in the middle of estimates for the Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage report which will be released on June 29th. Weather forecasting models have added more rain for the Midwest starting the middle of next week. Crops will see more stress before any moisture arrives. Basis has strengthened at the gulf and at ethanol plants in the Midwest. This is providing support for July corn futures as cash markets are now 80 over is some areas. The new crop corn is being pressured by fund and technical selling. The 5.00 area is now major support for Dec corn. Export sales estimates for the 7:30 report are: corn 350 to 700 tmt, beans 450 to 750 tmt, wheat 150 to 350 tmt. The Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26 will answer specific questions on production and acreage before the USDA report. Cash cattle traded yesterday afternoon at 118 to 119 which is 3 to 4 dollars lower than last week. Boxed beef values were mixed with choice up .28 and select down .19. Pork continues to separate itself from cattle as the cash hog and product markets has started a seasonal rally. Pork Cutout was up .93. Morning Coffee will be updated by 8:00 am
 
 
Markets as of 5:30 AM
Jly Corn    +6 1/4
Jly Beans   -5 1/4
Jly Wheat   +4
Aug Cattle -.15
Jly Hogs    +.50
Sep S&P     +2.00
Sep Dlr     +.10
Jly Crude   +.14
Aug Gold    +1.50
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s extremely weak performance in June Live Cattle has now made the $116.15 pivot low a level of critical importance. A close below $116.15 would confirm a double top which would project a move $4.25 lower to $111.90. 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Allendale estimated corn and bean yields at 159.7 and 43.96. USDA kept its 166.0 and 43.9 estimates unchanged from the May release. They typically do not adjust yields to current conditions until the July report.
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Grains Quiet after USDA Report

Jun 13, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 13, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are slightly lower. The market survived the first USDA report during live trading although there was an increase in volatility for about 4 minutes. Next change to trading hours will occur on June 25th at which time open outcry will close at 2:00 pm instead of 1:15 pm. The USDA numbers yesterday were bearish corn due to the unchanged ending stocks numbers when trade was looking for sizeable drops. Soybean data was positive. Weather is still the key to potential rallies due to extremely dry conditions in the Midwest. The models have put more rain in for next week and cooler temps. World Weather Inc. says, "The bottom line still provides net drying and increasing crop stress late this week and into early next week as high pressure builds up across the Midwest briefly. Relief then comes later next week with rain falling in many key crop areas at one time or another…" The trade will be turning to estimates for the June 29th Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage numbers very soon. We have a key macro event coming up on Sunday, June 17, the Greek Parliamentary election. Headlines out of Europe will be a market mover for commodities. The technical support area to watch in Dec corn futures is the 5.00 level. A close below that level could signal more selling. Cash cattle trade has been inactive early this week with very light demand. Boxed beef values were lower on Tuesday. Choice down .21 and select was down 1.44. Pork values continue to strengthen as it was up another. Pork values continue to strengthen as it was up another .91. June Lean Hog last trading day is tomorrow. Sign up today for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar which will be held on June 26th. Rich Nelson will be discussing weather with Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    -1
Jly Beans   -1
Jly Wheat   +5
Aug Cattle unch
Jly Hogs    +.02
Sep S&P     -2.00
Sep Dlr     -.16
Jly Crude   -.o3
Aug Gold    -.06
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Hogs rejected the 62% retracement level on Tuesday and are now trading near the 50%.
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Tuesday’s USDA report was considered disappointing for corn. Old crop ethanol was raised by 50 million bushels while old crop exports were lowered by 50. Ending stocks were left unchanged at 851 million bushels. The trade was expecting stocks to be lowered as corn for feed use was expected to be raised now that corn is cheaper to feed than wheat. The trade was expecting new crop stocks to fall but USDA left all numbers unchanged.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Counting Down to USDA Report at 7:30 a.m.

Jun 12, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 12, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures prices are higher. The USDA will give us a first this morning, as the Monthly Supply and Demand Report will be released while the markets are open. The USDA said they will monitor the computer and bandwidth demands during this release. But have not changed computer capacity for this report. The trade is expecting a sizable drop in old crop corn ending stocks with a minor reduction for new crop. Soybeans should show tightening supplies for 2011-12 and even tighter ending stocks for 2012-13. Remember the USDA will not give us a change in planted acreage until June 29. Crop conditions fell by 6% in the G/E rating category to 66% in corn and soybeans dropped by 5% to 60% G/E. The condition of the corn and soybeans is now below last year at this time. World Weather Inc. says: "The bottom line still provides net drying and increasing crop stress later this week and into early next week as high pressure builds up across the Midwest briefly. Relief then comes later next week with rain falling in many key crop areas at one time or another with amounts sufficient to restore favorable topsoil moisture – at least for a little while..." Funds were estimated sellers of at least 10,000 contract of corn and 3,000 beans yesterday. The macro influences in commodities seems to be taking precedence over the fundamental picture. The USDA report this morning will have its impact then traders will go back to watching headlines out of Europe and China. Weather forecast will continue to throw fuel on the fire for a few more weeks. Boxed beef was higher on Monday with choice up .75 and select up 1.01. Watch for a top in boxed beef values as we have a strong seasonal pattern suggesting lower prices starting in mid-June. Pork cutout values were up 2.59 yesterday. Check out the details of the USDA report on the "MORNING COFFEE" at 8:00am. Sign up today for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar which will be held on June 26th. Rich Nelson will be discussing weather with Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +2 1/2
Jly Beans   +6 1/4
Jly Wheat   +7 1/2
Jun Cattle +.45
Jly Hogs    +.02
Jun S&P     +9.25
Jun Dlr     -.06
Jly Crude   -.36
Aug Gold    -4.8
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s inside range day in July Corn does imply that the rally attempt is beginning to slow down at the $6.00 level. A breakout either above the 6/08 high of $6.05 ½ or below the 6/08 low of $5.84 ½ is needed to imply the direction of this market in the short term.
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
On Saturday a conference call was held between EU finance ministers. They agreed to lend 100 billion euros to Spain for support of its banking system. This is the fourth instance of governments, or their banks, seeking assistance from EU financial authorities. The amount, 100 billion euros, is much larger than the 40 to 90 billion that the trade thought would be realistic. This will calm fears in the EU and help limit the US dollar.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 

 

Weather, Profit-taking and Reports

Jun 11, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 11, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures prices are mostly higher. Weather forecasts have put in a little more rain and a little cooler temps than Friday models. We need more than just a little more rain but will take any moisture right now. Corn will be tasseling in some areas this week. Tomorrow’s S+D report will be watched closely as traders will have to deal with the report while the market is open. Traders are looking for a lower stocks number for corn and soybeans. USDA will give us the weekly conditions report this afternoon at 3:00pm. Traders are looking for a decline of 2 to 3 % of the G/E category. The macro economic situation should provide support as Spain went to the EU and received 100 billion euros to put a Band-Aid on their banking liquidity problem. China’s economic data released yesterday was seen as better than expected. Commitment of Traders Report showed managed money liquidating long positions corn by 20,000+ and soybeans by 23,000+. Index fund reduced their long position by 11,000+ to only 17% of open interest in corn. Livestock futures should get support from outside markets. Cutout values were lower with choice down .48 and select down 1.66. Pork cutout was up .94 to finish the week. We should see excellent weekend clearance at the retail counter. This could provide early week support. Sign up today for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar which will be held on June 26th. Rich Nelson will be discussing weather with Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +1 1/2
Jly Beans   +11 1/4
Jly Wheat   +3 3/4
Jun Cattle stdy - hgr
Jun Hogs    stdy - hgr
Jun S&P     +9.25
Jun Dlr     -.42
Jun Crude   +.72
June Gold   +.50
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Friday’s strong close in the Dec. Corn has set the stage for another run at the key resistance at $5.50. A close above $5.50 would imply challenges to the $5.75 and $5.97 levels of key resistance. If we fail at $5.50 the sideways trend between $5.50 and $4.99 should be expected to continue.
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Considering the fact that July Chicago wheat fell 43 cents from the 29th to the 5th funds were pretty mild in their sales of 18,134 contracts during that period
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 

 

More Excitement on the Horizon

Jun 08, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 8, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures prices lower on profit taking after a few days of a sharp rally. Today, the dollar is sharply higher and the commodity basket is under pressure. There were so many factors that provided support yesterday. Will they be back coming in focus today? Weather is still the number one concern to the grain markets. Weather models add or subtract .25 to .50 of moisture and prices react. The GFS model increased rainfall Sunday into Tuesday in localized areas of Indiana and Illinois where totals were noted to 0.75 inches previously and now amounts were suggested to 1.50 inches. Key word is localized. We need rain throughout the Midwest. Reports and pictures of stressed corn and soybeans continue to come into our office from NE to OH. Macro influences have not gone away; Europe is wrapping up the week but still looking for answers to a very fragile economic situation. It is expected that markets will be supported on any setback as the weather forecast on Sunday afternoon will provide the direction of futures on Monday. Tuesday morning the USDA will give us new supply and demand data. Traders are expecting lower ending stocks for corn and soybeans. Stay tuned to the Allendale Research Center for details. Cash cattle traded 1.00 higher in the south. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up .29 and select was down .46. Pork cutouts were down .70. Watch the "Morning Coffee" at 8:00 am for more details.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    -5
Jly Beans   -13 1/4
Jly Wheat   -8 3/4
Jun Cattle -.20
Jun Hogs    -.45
Jun S&P     -3.00
Jun Dlr     +.61
Jun Crude   -2.15
June Gold   -7.30
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s strong break above the downtrend line has established the $12.44 ¾ low as the key support level Nov Soybeans must continue to trade above to establish this level as a pivot low and resume the bull market. A close above the 5/10/12 high of $13.68 creates a scenario in which Nov Soybeans could attempt new highs above the $14.00 level that has capped this market for the last 10 months.
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Overnight China’s central bank made a surprise 0.25% cut in short term interest rates. They also allowed commercial banks to make loans with interest rates on deposits higher than central bank rates. Both of these moves will encourage additional borrowing and are seen as stimulating for their economy. This is bullish to world commodities.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dry Fields and Headlines Lead Markets

Jun 07, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 7, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures prices are higher. Headlines continue to provide support for the bulls as the Midwest is hoping for rain early next week. The Argentine farmers have halted sales of corn and soybeans for one week. A news story reporting Brazil would run out of beans to sell after July provides lift for old crop beans. Goldman Roll should start today and will likely impact spreads. Weather forecasts continue to provide support on breaks in futures however the financial instability of the Eurozone has provided investor concern. We will be getting a look at supply and demand next Tuesday morning from USDA. You can get Allendale’s estimates for the USDA Supply and Demand Report by clicking on the blue link. Traders will be watching for new export news at 8:00 am this morning. Estimates for today’s weekly export sales to be released at 7:30 am are: corn 450 to 750 tmt, soybeans 600 to 850 tmt, wheat 400 to 500 tmt, soymeal 50 to 150 tmt and soyoil 5 to 15 tmt. Cash corn markets were .81 over the July in some locations. Living from rain to rain is very difficult as some fields will receive needed moisture and others are missed. The outlook for next week suggests there will  be some chances of rain across the Midwest however the European and US models are not consistent on the amount. This should create volatility as traders get positioned for Sunday night. Producers in southern IL and IN are telling us they will have corn tasseling in 10 to 14 days. Bernanke will speak to the Joint Economic committee on Capitol Hill at 10:00 am EDT this morning. Trade will be listening for any indication of a possible QE3. The cash cattle trade is at a standstill with bids and ask several dollars apart. Choice beef was up .73 and select was down .38 on Wednesday. Pork cutout values were up 1.75. Can we continue with the risk-off attitude for another day? Stay in touch with Allendale Research Center for more insight on what is happening in the markets as we near the USDA June Supply and Demand Report.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +3 1/2
Jly Beans   +10 1/2
Jly Wheat   +1/4
Jun Cattle +.32
Jun Hogs    +.07
Jun S&P     +3.50
Jun Dlr     -.17
Jun Crude   -.17
June Gold   -10.80
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s strong close above the 6/01/12 pivot high of $5.80 has defined the 6/01/12 low of $5.51 as key support. If we are to believe that July Corn is going to continue higher making an attempt at the 5/21/12 pivot high of $6.44 ½ is not out of the question.
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The president of the European Central Bank said euro zone governments are in charge of fixing EU member debt problems. This essentially dashed the market’s hopes that the ECB would step in and provide additional support. The ECB estimates euro zone economic growth from -0.5% to +0.3% in 2012.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Index Funds Roll and London Back to Work

Jun 06, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 6, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures prices are higher as risk-on mentality spreads across commodity sector. The dryness in the forecast for the next few days has traders very tentative about pressing new crop futures. World Weather Inc. believes, ‘…A greater than usual amount of rain will likely evolve in the northern half of the Plains and upper Midwest early to mid-week next week with the precipitation losing some of its intensity as it moves east across the Midwest in time. The outlook should still present rain to most areas that will experience net drying this week and the end result will be improved crop and field conditions for many areas." The farmer strike in Argentina is now spreading to become a one week national strike. This could play havoc with sales out of SA. However with the backlog in shipment out of that region there may be little impact. The Goldman roll is due to begin this week and stretch for 5 days. However the real focus is on the USDA Supply and Demand report due to be released Tuesday, June 12 at 7:30 am is the ending stocks for corn and beans as well as the yield the USDA is using in their balance sheet. Allendale will be releasing our estimates tomorrow. Central IL cash corn basis is .70 over July in some places. London is back today we would expect to see more headlines on the EU financial crisis and more volume in the ag futures markets. Traders are concerned about the boxed beef values will slip sharply going into the end of June. There is a strong seasonal pattern which suggests beef product values fall starting in mid-June usually after the retailers have their needs bought for the July 4th holiday. Boxed beef on Tuesday was lower with choice was down 1.22 and select was down .34. Pork traders are struggling with the cash discount to June futures. Pork cutout values were down .21 on Tuesday. Stay in touch with Allendale Research Center for more insight on what is happening in the markets as we near the USDA June Supply and Demand Report.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +6
Jly Beans   +16
Jly Wheat   +6 1/4
Jun Cattle +.40
Jun Hogs    -.20
Jun S&P     +11.00
Jun Dlr     -.28
Jun Crude   +.77
June Gold   +17.60
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
July Lean Hogs have continued their journey higher. At this $91.00 level we have seen three sessions of balanced trade. This market has a decision to make in the next few sessions. If we close above Monday’s high we should make an  attempt at $94.87. If we fail below Friday’s low we could make a run at the $83.72 low.
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Corn ratings were left unchanged at the previous week’s 72% good to excellent rating. The trade was expecting a 1% decline. Iowa fell 2%, Illinois was left unchanged, and Nebraska fell 4% from the previous week.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Dry In Midwest but Corn Crop Stable

Jun 05, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 5, 2012 at 5:05 am. Corn and soybean futures prices are mixed. Weekly crop ratings for corn remain unchanged at 72% good to excellent. The top states of Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska posted changes of -2%, unchanged, and -4% respectively. USDA posted the first crop rating for soybeans of the year. Good to excellent ratings were seen at 65%. That was under analyst estimates of 69%. Winter Wheat is well into harvest and spring wheat conditions were down 1% to 78% good to excellent compared to the 10 year average of 72%. The weather is still being viewed as a weight on wheat prices with recent rainfall in the Black Sea region of Europe, and Russia having stabilized the European crop. Australia’s winter wheat crop is off to a good start as rain has been timely. World Weather Inc. says, "The bottom line still provides net drying and increasing crop stress later this week and into the weekend as high pressure builds up across the Midwest briefly. Relief then comes for next week with rain falling in many key crop areas at one time or another with amounts sufficient to restore favorable topsoil moisture – at least for a little while." Brazil announced their soybean exports for May at over 2.0 mmt more than last year. Traders are waiting for an announcement that China bought corn from US. Currently, SA prices are lower than US. Macro markets were quiet yesterday and may be again today as London is on holiday until Wednesday. Should see more talk about the crop production report next Tuesday morning. Boxed beef values were higher on Monday with choice up .37 and select up .13. Fill in buying by retailers after good clearance this past weekend. Also we should see support from retailers preparing for Father’s Day only 12 days away. Pork cutout value was up .63 yesterday afternoon. Hog futures are struggling to maintain premium to cash index with only 8 trading days remaining until expiration. Stay in touch with Allendale Research Center for more insight on what is happening in the markets as we near the USDA June Supply and Demand Report.
 
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Jly Corn    -1 1/2
Jly Beans   +8 1/2
Jly Wheat   - 1/2
Jun Cattle +.35
Jun Hogs    -.35
Jun S&P     -2.75
Jun Dlr     +.25
Jun Crude   - .22
June Gold   +4.80
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday in the Nov. Soybeans we made a new low for the move down by 1/4 cent at $12.44 3/4 . The down trend line is still keeping a tight lid on this market and should continue going forward until we see a close above the 5/29/12 high of $13.07 3/4 . 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The extended forecast still calls for above normal temps and below normal precip. Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri are seen with sharply above normal temperatures. As this dry forecast gets closer to July, the market will show some concern.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Weather Worries Wake Up Buyers

Jun 04, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 4, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are higher. Weather forecast leads grain prices higher right from the opening last night. World Weather Inc. says, "Seven day rainfall ending Sunday, June 10, will range from 0.05 to 0.50 inch in the eastern Midwest with a few pockets of slightly more rain. Rain amounts in the west will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with a few amounts to more than 1.00 inch. Temperatures will remain mild this week with highs often in the 60s and 70s. Warming is expected Friday into the weekend with highs rising into the upper 70s and lower to middle 80s." Producers I talked to last night were happy with the way the corn crop looks now. They are thankful for cooler temps with little amount of rain in the forecast. Crop conditions report out this afternoon. Farmers in Buenos Aires province in Argentina started a 9 day strike on Saturday due to the government’s increase of land taxes. This the largest agricultural production state in Argentina. The Greek parliamentary election set for June 17 is too close to call by pollster. Spain is becoming the main focus in the EU. Spain’s credit issues are worse than Portugal was before they asked for help from the Euro ministers. Managed Money reduced long corn positions last week by 47,529 to a net long of 61,493. They added to long position in wheat by 8,449 to give them a net long position of 15,585. There was only a slight change in net soybean positions. Can the livestock futures buck the negative attitude on Wall Street this week? Closing out trade on Friday both cattle and hogs put in a strong performance for the last trading day of the week. However boxed beef values were lower, with choice down .06 and select down 1.69. Pork cutout was up .44. Stay in touch with Allendale Research Center for more insight on what is happening in the markets as we near the USDA June Supply and Demand Report.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +12
Jly Beans   -0 1/4
Jly Wheat   +7 1/4
Jun Cattle stdy-lwr
Jun Hogs    stdy-lwr
Jun S&P     -2.25
Jun Dlr     -.09
Jun Crude   -1.51
June Gold   -2.20
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Friday’s attempt at recovery in July Corn was met with resistance. Even though we did carve out a new low at $5.51 we need to remember that there were buyers present and we did trade higher. This could create a scenario where sellers develop a false sense of security.
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The monthly employment report from the government held bad news. The trade was expecting to see non-farm payrolls increase by 150,000. Instead the government’s survey indicated an anemic increase of only 69,000. That was made from an 82,000 gain for private employment and a 13,000 loss for government employment
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Macro Concerns Drag Commodities Lower

Jun 01, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 1, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are mostly lower as we start a new month. May was not a good month for the investors as July Beans were down 1.65 and July corn was down .79. The crude oil was down 18.73 and the Dow finished 820 lower than on April 30. The large long positions by funds in the soybeans have traders comparing this liquidation potential to the sell-off of 2008 and 2009. Export sales estimates for this morning are: corn 450 to 650 tmt, soybeans 450 to 700 tmt, soymeal 100 to 150 tmt, soyoil 10 to 20 tmt, wheat 350 to 500 tmt. USDA is looking for 2011/12 soybean exports to end the year (August 31) 12% lower than last year. Year to date exports are 13% lower. Brazilian corn prices have fallen to where it pencils the possibility of bringing corn into the US. Not likely as Brazilian ports are backed up for several months. The EU economic troubles continue to simmer. Greek elections set for June 17 are too close to call and Spain’s banking issues are dominating the headlines. Funds moving positions out of nearby contracts started yesterday. This will likely keep pressure on the July contracts. Cash cattle traded in NE at 1.00 higher than last week on dressed bases. Boxed beef were mixed on Thursday with choice up .31 and select was down 1.05. The lean hog futures have taken out chart resistance level as we expect a strong close for the week. Pork cutout values were up 1.17 late yesterday. Stay in touch with Allendale on twitter or subscribe to Allendale Research Center. Listening to the Allendale "Morning Coffee" on YouTube at 8:00AM.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +2
Jly Beans   -8 3/4
Jly Wheat   -2
Jun Cattle +.50
Jun Hogs    +.07
Jun S&P     -16.75
Jun Dlr     +.30
Jun Crude   -1.65
June Gold   -10.30
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s impressive strength in the June Hogs has taken out resistance at the 5/18/12 pivot high of $87.95. Contributing to the change in trend is the fact that the downtrend line that has capped the June Hog market for the last 3 months has also been violated. This 5/18/12 high should now be considered support is the key level this market must stay above in order to maintain bullish momentum.
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
After a 20 month review the Food and Drug Association denied the Corn Refiners Association request to label high fructose corn syrup as "corn sugar". The agency indicated the move could confuse consumers and may pose a health risk to those with fructose intolerance. HFCS production accounts for 4% of total corn use.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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