Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 18, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are sharply lower in soybeans due to follow through selling. Corn and Wheat are steady to higher. Yesterday’s drop in futures prices has to be attributed to technical selling with a lack of fundamental news. USDA weekly crop conditions report put corn harvest at 26% and the G/E category up 2% to 24%. Soybeans harvest is progressing with 10% complete versus 4% last week. The weather forecast over the next 10 days should allow for further progress. Cash basis late yesterday showed most areas slipping due to harvest. Yield reports continue to come in better than expected by producers. Rich Nelson will be discussing the quarterly stocks estimates next week at the August Ag Leaders Webinar. The wetter forecast for northern Brazil is also cooling off the bullish fever. The large long fund positions have traders wondering if yesterday’s sell-off is the beginning of move similar to last year. Funds were sellers in a big way yesterday with Reuters reporting an estimate of 22,000 corn, 5,000 wheat and 20,000 beans. Boxed beef values were higher on Monday with choice up 1.51 and select up 1.78. Pork supplies continue to be burdensome as producers liquidate herds. The outlook for 4th quarter losses to exceed $50 per herd is not a very consoling outlook. Pork cutout values were down .16 on Monday.
Markets as of 4:45 AM
Dec Corn +1 1/4
Nov Beans -25
Dec Wheat +8 1/2
Oct Cattle +.10
Oct Hogs +.07
Sep Dlr +.11
Sep S+P -4.25
Oct Crude -.52
Dec Gold -.12.70
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s Nov. Soybean trade saw a complete momentum failure at the 9/12 low of $16.93 ½ . Along with yesterday’s momentum failure we confirmed a head and shoulders top on the Nov Soybean chart. This pattern does project to $16.00; in order to negate this downtrend we would need to see a recovery above the 9/14 $17.65 high. For unpriced bushels, I would advise to have orders resting at $16.91 which is the neck line on the H&S top.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated the following changes by Managed Money, the "funds", between September 4 and 11…corn -27,162, soybeans -8,852, wheat -3,447, live cattle +5,316, and lean hogs -1,379. Funds have sold 46,426 contracts of corn in the past three weeks.
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