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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Bargain Hunters Buying Grains

Sep 19, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 19, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher on short covering after a sharp break. The sharp sell-off in soybeans early this week has pushed prices to levels where it has piqued buyers interest. Traders will be watching the daily sales announcements at 8:00 am. There is talk that Taiwan bought 2 to 5 cargoes of US beans this week. China will be on a week long holiday which starts at the beginning of October. Harvest is expected to be in full swing the next 10 days with only minor delays from isolated showers. Funds were big sellers on Tuesday with estimates of 9,000 corn and 12,000 soybeans. Macro markets have settled down and it is expected that Japan will make some type of economic easing move. We expect choppy markets for the balance of the week as fundamental news is limited and technical traders dominate market psychology. Livestock traders have been taking their key from grains. Feed cost and profitability equations are not stacking up for prosperous fall for livestock producers. Cash cattle are expected to trade at steady to better this week. Boxed beef was higher on Tuesday with choice up 1.22 and select up 1.54. Pork cutout values were down 1.37. October lean hog futures need a close above Tuesday’s high to signal a season bottom. Don’t forget to sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar next Tuesday September 28.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    +7 1/2
Nov Beans   +24 1/4
Dec Wheat   +13 3/4
Oct Cattle -.07
Oct Hogs    -.55
Sep Dlr     +.08
Sep S+P     +1.50
Oct Crude   -.25
Dec Gold    +4.50
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Given yesterday’s follow through selling, the Dec Wheat market is now technically on the ropes. Below the 8/14 $8.57 ¼ pivot low the market may have a hard time finding a place to "catch". A failure at the pivot low may leave the Dec Wheat market to severe downside risk.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Corn harvest advanced from 15% to 26% complete last week. That was better than the trade’s expectation of 24%, though traders are focusing more this morning on the advancements, and better than expected yields, in soybeans. 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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