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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Can Markets Rally On No Positive News?

Aug 14, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 14, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mostly lower this morning. Selling pressure continues based on a weak technical picture and lack of supportive fundamental news.

Weather forecast for next week is warmer which should help the maturation of the late planted crops. There also is more rain in the forecast for western cornbelt which has been the driest area.

Funds were a big seller yesterday. They are estimated to have sold a net 12,000 contracts of corn. This data will be included in Friday’s Commitment of traders report.

After discussion with USDA and understanding their yield calculation, trade is now thinking corn yield could be under estimated. They used a 5 year average ear weight which has been taken during several drought years.

Trade will be watching for export news for more new crop sales. China margins are providing an advantage to markets. Two of South Korea’s buying groups are tendering for optional origin corn.

Argentina soybean processors are striking today at the Rosario port area as they want better working conditions and a better health care plan. NOPA Crush data will be released on August 15 at 11:00 am CDT.

August futures contracts in soybeans, meal and soyoil will expire today.

Allendale’s Annual Yield Survey starts next Monday, August 19th and runs through August 30th. We ask that you call us at 800-262-7538 or fill out the survey online. No one knows your fields like you do! Because of your help Allendale’s surveys have been extremely accurate. The results will be released on September 4th.

The Pro Farmer crop tour starts next week. It will receive a lot of attention due to social media and reporters traveling with the tour. The headline traders will have a field day.

Beef cow slaughter is suggesting tighter meat supplies. From March through May, slaughter levels were 14% over last year. The Plains were still suffering from drought and cow/calf producers were saying "enough is enough". Since mid-June that pattern has changed. In the past four weeks, beef cow slaughter has been 9% under last year. Boxed beef was up .04 and select was up .45 on Tuesday.

Last year this minor "rebound into August" had a wholesale pork peak on the 6th. In 2011 it was made on the 8th. The industry now has to consider whether Friday August 9th was the peak. Pork cutout values were up .38.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +0
  • Nov Beans   -14
  • Sep Wheat   -2 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.30
  • Oct Hogs    +.40
  • Sep Dlr     +.08
  • Sep S&P     -2.25
  • Sep Crude   -.66
  • Oct Gold    +2.70

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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