Jul 26, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Cool Weather For Pollination Is What The Doctor Ordered

Jul 23, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 23, 2013 at 4:45 am.  Grain futures are lower as a storm system moves across NE. Some of the dryer areas received moisture last night. Cooler temps are forecast for the period of peak corn pollination which has trader’s reluctant buyers in new crop contracts. Crop condition ratings for corn were down 3% to 63% G/E while soybeans were downgraded by 1% to 64% G/E. Many traders were expecting as much as a 5% decline due to dry weather this past week. The next few days’ price direction will be led by weather forecasts and option expiration on Friday. The Dec corn contract has critical support at the 4.90 level. A close below that level could set the stage for a test of 4.50. Traders are also talking about the potential reduction in production on the August USDA report because of declining crop conditions. Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist, compared historical losses based on lack of moisture in the western cornbelt and suggests it could take the national average yield to below 150 bushel per acre. However, when making the adjustment for increased production in the eastern part of the belt it is likely the USDA will not adjust their yield number that dramatically on the August report. Tight old crop supplies are keeping the support under the new crop as traders find it difficult to be too bearish with cash market premiums. It has been reported that Asian buyers, which are normally US customers, have purchased 600,000 tonnes of corn out of the Black Sea region and additional amounts out of Brazil. What will it take to get our export business back? Cold storage data for meats provided a surprise for pork stocks. The average trade guesses for the June 30th pork stocks were 625.8 million lbs. The actual USDA number was 564.9 million lbs. This represents a huge 94 million lb. drop from last month which is the largest one month drop for any month in history. Beef stocks were in line with trade estimates and a considered neutral. The Feeder Cattle Index was up .48 to 146.47. Cash cattle trade is at a standstill with offers at 121 to 123. Boxed beef was lower on Monday with choice down .24 and select down .97. Pork cutout values were up .73. Thanks to all who attended the July Ag Leaders Webinar last evening! If you were unable to attend the live broadcast you will be able to listen to the recorded session later this morning by checking at www.allendale-inc.com.

The results of yesterday’s poll question: Where do you think the "Fall Low" for December Corn will be?

$4.50-$4.75–28.92%
$4.25-$4.49–34.34%
$4.00-$4.24–19.28%
$3.75-$3.99–12.65%
Below $3.75–4.82%
 

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Dec #Corn    -7 1/4
  • Nov #Beans   +2 1/2
  • Sep #Wheat   -5 3/4
  • Aug #Cattle  +.07
  • Aug #Hogs    +.52
  • Sep Dlr     +.12
  • Sep S&P     +3.50
  • Sep Crude   -.59
  • Aug Gold    -8.00

 

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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