Sep 16, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Corn Crop Improves Last Week

Jul 15, 2014

 Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 15, 2014 at 4:30 AM.

Grain futures are lower as crop conditions improve for corn and hold steady for soybeans.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference "Summer Update" will start next week. 

Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

Corn good/excellent ratings increased by 1% last week to 76% while the trade was expecting no improvement. This is the fourth best number for this week in the 28 year ratings history. Corn silking advanced from 15% last week to now 33% with the five year average at 33%.

Soybean ratings were left unchanged at 72% good/excellent. There are only two other years, in the last 28 years with better numbers for this week. Both years resulted in big yields.

Wheat harvest is now ahead of average at 69%. The spring wheat remains at 70% good/excellent. Blooming advanced from 24% complete last week to now 41%.

History suggests we are normally approaching the hottest week of the growing season and our current forecasts are projecting below normal temps for most of the Midwest during this period.

The NOPA Crush for June is estimated at 119.5 which is not a bullish number since the USDA raised it’s total domestic crush estimate on last Fridays report. This number could be looked at as neutral with an attainable slowdown through year end.

Ukrainian wheat is dragging world export prices down as buyers are looking for a discount to offset the domestic unrest risk.

Comments Issued by Darrel Good, University of Illinois…"We have previously argued that the average price for the new era of prices that began in 2006-07 would be about $4.60, so that $2.00 in 2005-06 is equivalent to $3.82 in the current era. An average price in the year ahead near $3.75 would be consistent with similar supply-consumption scenarios of the recent past. It appears that the market has already priced in an average yield of at least 170 bushels."

Last week’s PEDv findings have dropped to 143. Hog slaughter was down over 8% last week and when adding in the heavier weights, pork production was down more than 4%. Are we finally going to see the effects of last winter’s PEDv? July hog contracts go off the board today at noon. Pork cutout values are down .48.

Cattle futures are anticipating the pickup in market ready supplies as showlist increases another 4,000 head on top of the 35,000 increase last week. We also are approaching the time of year where retailers back-off on featuring the primal cuts with only one big cookout holiday weekend left. Beef values were weaker as choice was down .65 and select down .42. The CME Feeder Index is 217.62.

Get our newest price projections and trade strategies, here.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Sep Corn   -2       
  • Aug Beans   -9 1/2
  • Sep Wheat   – 3/4
  • Aug Cattle  +.20    
  • Aug Hogs    +.30
  • Sep Dlr     +.07
  • Sep S&P     -2.50
  • Aug Crude   -.45
  • Aug Gold   +5.90


Chart of the Day

daily chart

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