Countdown to USDA Report
Apr 10, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 10, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher as traders make last minute position adjustments. In just a few hours the USDA will release their April Supply and Demand estimates. Trade estimates for ending stocks are: Corn 792 vs. USDA last month 801, Soybeans 246 vs. last month 275, wheat 792 vs. last month 825. Traders’ estimates are for lower Argentina production, corn 21.463 mmt vs. USDA March estimate of 22.00 mmt, soybean 45.19 vs. 46.50 mmt. Brazil’s trade estimate for corn is 61.71 mmt vs. 62.00 mmt in March, soybean 67.114 mmt vs. 68.50 mmt in March. Yesterday’s planting progress was in line with trade estimates at 7% of the nation’s corn planted. Illinois is way ahead of normal with 17% corn planted versus 1% average. Kentucky, Indiana and Missouri are also ahead of normal. Spring wheat plantings jumped from 8% last week to 21% this week verses 5% average. Funds were large sellers of corn about 10,000 contracts on Monday while selling 4,000 contracts of beans and buying 4,000 contracts of wheat. Check in with the "Morning Coffee" on YouTube at 8:00 and get the market reaction and details of the report or call your Allendale Representative. Wholesale boxed beef should some signs of life on Monday as choice was up 1.00 and select was up 1.58. Pork cutout values were down .13. It may take more than one day higher markets to suggest a bottom but certainly is encouraging. Keep in touch with Allendale Research Center by subscribing today.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
May Corn +.04 1/4
May Beans +.07 1/2
May Wheat +.02
Apr Cattle +.225
Apr Hogs -.325
Jun S&P +4.25
Jun $ Ind +.21
May Crude -.55
June Gold +1.00
Allendale Advanced Charts
Cattle closed weak Monday which does not provide a lot of confidence that the seasonal bottom is in. The recent rally maybe just a pit-stop before more liquidation.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Friday’s monthly assessment of the job market held disappointing results. Only 120,000 new jobs were added in the month of March. This was down from trade estimates of 200,000. It was also the lowest since month since October.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
