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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Does Argentina Hold Key To HRW Price?

Oct 18, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 18, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher lead by wheat. A pickup in demand and production worries around the world drive buyers.

This report is coming to you from Carbondale, IL where I have the honor of serving on the SIU College of Ag Leadership Board today.

The USDA will announce this morning when they will resume the export sales reporting. They said the next Supply and Demand report will be on November 8.I had the opportunity to have dinner last evening with a retired USDA official who had gone through several government shut downs. He felt the data is likely being accumulated but it may take the USDA a few days to catch up on processing.

Interior corn basis is weaker as farmers shift harvest from beans to corn. However gulf demand for soybeans and meal improved due China demand.

President Obama says his priority now is on getting a new farm bill. He is urging congress to pass a bill without steep cuts to food stamps.

Japan buys 112,031 tonnes of wheat split between US, Canada and Australia.

Reuters is collecting updated yield and production estimates from industry analysts. Allendale’s submission is bumped up slightly to 158.2 for corn and 42.4 soybeans.Southeast IA yield results are not as robust as other areas. Corn yields are being reported at 162 verses an APH of 178. Soybeans are running in the 30’s.

Argentina Ag Minister pegs their wheat crop at only 8.8 mmt compared to USDA’s 12 mmt estimate. Traders are waiting for any indication Argentine wheat exports could be halted. This would place an additional strain on tight US Hard Red Wheat carryover.

Cash hogs have a strong seasonal of trending lower into mid-November. However traders seem to have the attitude of “I want to see it before I believe it.” December futures remain at a minimal discount to where October went off the board. Previous USDA data would suggest a different picture.

Cattle futures traders had to deal with the good news of 129 being paid for cash cattle in the south and the negative news of a possible strike at the JBS Greely, CO plant over new company health plan. Now they have to deal with a huge “outside day” on the charts after Thursday’s trade. It is important to rebound in the next few sessions to keep the uptrend intact.

Call your Allendale Representative with question at 800-262-7538.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

Dec Corn +2 1/4
Nov Beans +4 3/4
Dec Wheat +9 1/2
Dec Cattle +.02
Dec Hogs +.15
Dec Dlr -.14
Dec S&P +1.75
Nov Crude +.31
Dec Gold -2.20

Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at

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