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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

For the First Time, Grains Trade through a Major Report

Jun 29, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 29, 2012 at 5:15 am. Corn and soybean futures are higher. Support is coming from outside markets and pre-report tension. Only a few hours away from what some call the biggest USDA report of the year. The open outcry markets open at 7:20 this morning due to the USDA report. Trade estimate for planted acres in corn is 95.962 million acres, in March the USDA had estimated 95.864 million acres. Soybean acres estimate is 75.575 million acres compared to 73.902 million acres. The quarterly stocks data has the trade estimating 3.182 billion bushel for corn and 640 million bushel for soybeans. A year ago on June 1st the inventory for corn 3.670 and 619 million bushel for beans. Wheat estimate is 726 compared to 862 million bushel a year ago. Weather forecast has added a little more rain from the second week of model runs. The 5 day forecast has high temps and low percentage chances of rain for the cornbelt. Macro markets are reacting to the EU leader’s announcement of changes to the banking system. This has caused the euro to rally which is pressuring the dollar. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released this afternoon at 2:00 pm. Trade guesses as a percentage of as year ago are: All hogs 101.3, Kept for Breeding 100.7, and 101.3 for Market hogs. Cattle and hog futures are have bounced yesterday due the heat effects on livestock production. Cash cattle are still at a stand-off. Boxed beef is lower with choice down 1.81 and select down .01. Pork cutout values were down 3.41. Stay tuned and get the recap of the report on the "Morning Coffee" on YouTube. We will be updating as quickly as possible after the 7:30 release of data.
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Jly Corn    +12 1/2
Jly Beans   +10
Jly Wheat   +8
Aug Cattle +.42
Jly Hogs    -.10
Sep S&P     +16.25
Sep Dlr     -.77
Auq Crude   +2.04
Aug Gold    +18.60
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s inside range day does imply a lack of conviction at the top of the move in Dec. Wheat. A close above the pivot high of $7.83 ¼ would imply continued higher pricing. A break below the 6/22/12 $6.95 ½ low would negate the uptrend.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Thursday’s USDA Export Sales Report showed 290 tmt of corn were sold for the week ending 6/21. This was below industry estimates of 300-500 tmt. The target for USDA’s yearly export sales continues to be revised lower as sales of corn continue to disappoint due to competitive feed wheat and South American prices.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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