Sep 19, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions| Sign UpLogin

The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grain Futures Quiet but Lower

Oct 05, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 5, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are lower on profit taking after a two day rally. The Labor Department’s unemployment number which will be released at 7:30 this morning will be very important for the grain trader’s attitude. The USDA crop production and Supply and Demand numbers will be out next Thursday. Estimates for soybean yield are rising with some thinking average yield could increase to 40 bushels per acre. Producers have been pleasantly surprised with soybean yield improvement due to late season rain. The $2.85 decline in November futures since Sept 4th is giving reason for traders to think the reversal on Wednesday could be real. The trend is still down but a strong close today could provide further short covering going into next week’s report. Corn yields nationally could see a slight adjustment on the USDA report however harvested acres will be the key number. Demand is really struggling for corn out of the US. South Korea made a symbolic purchase of corn from far eastern Russia overnight. US weekly corn sales for the last 3 weeks are 84% below last year’s pace. The price of US corn is 10 to 15 dollars higher than Brazil or Argentina. Informa will be releasing their estimates for corn and soybean production at 10:30 today. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange is estimating 4.5% increase in corn acreage by Argentina farmers this year. Live cattle traded yesterday at 124 which is 1 to 2 higher than last week. Cattle traders are concerned about possible deliveries which has caused some profit taking late in the session on Thursday. Market ready hog supplies have tightened and packers are fighting to get enough supply for a Saturday processing. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down up .65 and select down .44. pork cutout values were up 1.84.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -3
Nov Beans   -1
Dec Wheat   -3
Oct Cattle -.17
Oct Hogs    +.15
Dec Dlr     +.02
Sep S+P     +1.25
Nov Crude   -.70
Dec Gold    -4.70
Need more:
Contact us directly view email:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Live Cattle is trying to recover from its momentum failure last week. We are not seeing much strength in the latest recovery attempt which leads me to believe that we are going to see another leg lower in this move. A break below the 9/27 $123.95 low could expose this market to a retest of the contract lows…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
A Reuters newswire poll of Australian based analysts found a wheat production expectation at 21.44 million tonnes. That would be another decline from the Australian government’s latest 22.5 mt estimate. Disappointing rains in the past two weeks was the reason. USDA will be revising its 26 mt estimate lower on next Thursday’s supply/demand report.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.


Log In or Sign Up to comment


No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.

Hot Links & Cool Tools


facebook twitter youtube View More>>
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions