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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains are Finding a Technical Bounce

Sep 25, 2012

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for September 25, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are finding a slight recovery after yesterday’s selloff. Harvest progress was revealed yesterday and both corn and beans are on a record pace. For corn, the trade was looking for 41% complete but USDA said we are currently only 39% complete. This is still way ahead of the old record of 25% set in 2000. Beans are currently 22% complete with the trade looking for only 20%. The old record was also set in 2000 with 20% harvested at the time. Argentina is planting corn right now while Brazil is starting on beans. There has been concern with how dry it has been in Brazil but we should see some timely rains as planting kicks off. Brazil usually doesn’t start planting until the middle of October so this is still early. The quarterly grain stocks report will be released on Friday and will show how much grain is left over at the end of the year. This will be the final number for old crop corn and beans. On the last report, USDA pushed their estimate to 1.181 billion carryout for old crop corn. We feel that their number is pretty accurate and shouldn’t see much change on this report. The trade is looking for new crop ending stocks to increase on Friday so this may cap any significant rally in price as we get closer. Beans maybe a different story but with the current ending stock numbers we should see beans near 1675. Current supply and demand levels have the stock to use ratio at a point that beans could be undervalued. The charts are still suggesting that we could see more down side but the 1600 level may be tough to close below for now. Sign up for the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar that starts tonight at 8:00 pm.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +1
Nov Beans   +8
Dec Wheat   +1/2
Oct Cattle -.07
Oct Hogs    +.35
Dec Dlr     +.06
Sep S+P     UNCH
Oct Crude   +.66
Dec Gold    +5.50
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Nov Soybeans fulfilled its Head and Shoulders projection of $16.00; yesterday’s low of $15.90 ¼ does confirm the continuation of the down trend. The 9/20 $16.86 high is the newly confirmed pivot high that this market must close above the negate the downtrend…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Indian government has set its 2012/13 wheat production target at 86 million tonnes. This is below USDA’s full estimate of 93.9 and last year’s actual production of 86.9 mt.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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