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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Bounce to Start Holiday Week

Nov 19, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 19, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures rebound after last week’s sharp sell-off. Trading hours in the week ahead will be shortened by the observance of Thanksgiving on Thursday when markets are closed. Friday trading will be limited between the hours of 9:30 to 12:00 for grains. December options expire on Friday with largest current open interest at 7.00 in corn and 8.50 in wheat. EPA turns down several states request for waiver. The gamesmanship in Washington is working on trader’s commitment to carrying positions in commodities. The managed money last week reduced long positions in corn by 32,000 and soybeans by 39,000. We expect some position adjusting early in the week and volume to get lighter as we move closer to the holiday. Headlines out of Washington will influence markets as negotiations progress on the US budget. Weather in South America seems favorable for the time being. The USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report showed livestock producers are concerned about feed prices. The placements during October were the lowest since 1996, down 13% from last year. On feed was 95% of last year, while marketing’s were 103% of 2011. This report suggests tight beef supplies in early 2013. These numbers were in line with trade expectations. Beef prices on Friday were mixed with choice up .09 and select down .05. Pork cutout values were .93 higher. History suggests livestock futures could be volatile this week. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +5 3/4
Jan Beans   +14
Dec Wheat   +6
Dec Cattle Steady-Higher
Dec Hogs    Steady-Higher
Dec Dlr     -.23
Dec S+P     +6.25
Jan Crude   +.89
Dec Gold    +8.30
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn has started to build a level of support at the $7.10 level as we look to be building a new trading range between $7.10 and $7.32. A confirmed close above or below these levels should guide us on the next leg of our move…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The China National Grain and Oils Information Center confirms Chinese crushers have begun to cancel previously booked cargoes. Weak Chinese crush demand is cited. Reuters newswire suggests 600,000 tonnes, or 10 cargoes, were dropped from previously booked December or January delivery orders.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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