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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains continue to fall ahead of USDA report

Feb 07, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for February 7, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are falling once again ahead of the USDA report tomorrow. The trade is expecting to see an increase in corn and wheat carryout but could have a slight decrease for beans. Beans have been able to hold support over the last few days as corn and wheat continue to find more weakness. Export sales will be released this morning at 7:30. Beans continue to show good demand over the last several weeks but corn continues to struggle. The trade is expecting to see between 150,000-400,000 metric tonnes sold for corn and a big 800,000-1.3 million metric tonnes beans. With another potentially light sale for corn, USDA may have to revise export numbers tomorrow. Ethanol is another sore spot for corn. Production numbers yesterday had a slight increase from 770,000 barrels per day to 774,000 barrels per day. This is still 16% behind year ago levels for this week. For the year, so far ethanol is running 11.7% behind year ago levels as a whole. USDA still has ethanol at only a 10% decline. This leaves room for adjustments on tomorrow's report as well. Beans should continue to find support from lack of moisture in Argentina. The weather maps continue to fight over rain amounts for the next few weeks. The facts are that beans will have continued support as long as there is any concern because we have good demand and stocks are relatively tight. There is still chart resistance at the 1500 level and will most likely take a bullish report to push us through that.  Cattle filled the gap they made on the charts from a week ago but are slipping lower once again this morning. Box beef has been strong this week but finished mixed yesterday with choice .37 lower at 183.94 and select up .93 to 180.65. No cash cattle trades yet this week but we will need to see higher trade to turn the emotion around. Make sure to sign up on line if you will be able to attend any of the Allendale Road Series Meetings.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
  • Mar #Corn    -6
  • Mar #Beans   -4
  • Mar #Wheat   -4 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  -.10
  • Feb Hogs    -.32
  • Mar Dlr     -.17
  • Mar S&P     +3.25
  • Mar Crude   +.30
  • Feb Gold    -2.90
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538

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