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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Higher Overnight

Apr 24, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 24, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybeans futures are higher, supported by the outside markets. Cooler weather forecast provides support as the US crops get off to a fast start. USDA in the weekly crop progress report said we have 28% of the corn crop planted and 6% of the soybean crop planted. Corn emergence was 9%, way ahead of the 2% normal. IL had 21% emerged versus 1% average. We should see some excellent planting progress this week. Rich Nelson, Director of Research at Allendale looked at years where planting progress was above average. It is possible we could achieve the 50% threshold by next Saturday. There were 13 years where we beat the average planting date and in 11 out of the 13 years we beat trend yield. Long-term forecast by NOAA is projecting normal rainfall and normal precipitation for the months of May, June, and July. CFTC Commitment of Traders report from last Friday showed funds continuing to reduce long positions and increase soybean longs. Funds continue to reduce positions in commodities. This likely is the reason for consolidation in many commodities. Boxed beef values were higher on Monday with choice up .56 and select up .60. The above normal meat supplies in the freezer will hamper recovery in cash markets. The oversold condition in lean hog futures could give way to a sharp recovery when liquidation ceases. Allendale Research Center can keep you up to date on grain and livestock analysis. Go to
Markets as of 5:10AM
May Corn    + 1/2
May Beans   +5 1/4
May Wheat   +3
Apr Cattle +.12
Jun Hogs    +.02
Jun S&P     +3.50
Jun Dlr     -.09
May Crude   -.11
June Gold   +5.00
Allendale Advanced Charts
Early session break took out the uptrend and 100 day moving average, only to rebound late. The recent consolidation remains as dominant price range. Key support is now today’s low.

Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Corn planting came in under the expected 31% complete. Assuming good progress this week, we expect next Monday’s number at 51%. That would be the third earliest 50% complete number in history. There is a relationship between early planting and above trend yields.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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