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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

How Much Corn Is Left On The Farm?

Aug 22, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 22, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are lower as traders are booking some profits after the recent rallies in soybeans and corn.

Basis for corn is providing support for the nearby contracts as farmers holding grain are not willing sellers at current prices. Corn basis is reported at a $2.00 premium to September futures. Harvest is underway in the delta with some grain moving north. Central cornbelt harvest is a few weeks away. Soybean and meal basis continue to weaken.

The latest weather models were a little drier for the extended forecast with chances of rain across the upper Midwest now through Saturday.

More information from the crop tour puts Illinois corn yield at 170.5 bushels per acre compared to 3 year average of 148.04. The latest USDA projection for IL was 165 bushels per acre.  They should be releasing IA and MN later today. Watch for social media pictures and comments as the tour travels through these states to the final meeting place later today.

Ethanol data showed less production than last week at 844,000 barrels. This number was 3% less than last year however year-over-year production is down 7.3%. The USDA target is 7.2% decline in 2012/13.

Weekly export sales will be reported at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are old crop corn 25 to 125 tmt and new crop 700 to 850 tmt. The soybean estimate is old crop o to 100 tmt and new crop 1.300 to 1.700 mmt. The wheat estimate is 450 to 550 tmt.

Allendale’s 24th Annual Yield Survey is under way and we need your to help us with your farms corn and soybean yield expectation. You know your fields better than anyone. The survey can be filled out on line or call us at 800-262-7538.

Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday at 2:00 pm. Trade is looking for feedlot supplies to drop 4.2%, placements to be down 1.4% and markets to be 4.4% higher than a year ago. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .14 and select down .38. The CME Feeder index is at 155.13 down .13.

Cash hog weakness on increasing supply weighs on futures. A holiday shortened week coming up has packers dropping bids. Futures broke key moving averages causing funds and speculators to become seller. Pork cutout values were down 2.26 as retailers have adequate supplies going into holiday.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -7 3/4
  • Nov Beans   -17
  • Sep Wheat   -5 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  -.20
  • Oct Hogs    -.62
  • Sep Dlr     +.45
  • Sep S&P     +6.50
  • Oct Crude   +.38
  • Oct Gold    -3.80

 

View the Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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