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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Markets Waiting For Export News

Jan 16, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 16, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mostly higher as soybean demand is driver with watchful eye on South American weather.

China Commerce ministry says they expect 4.61 mmt of soybeans to be imported in January which is larger than previously suggested.

South Korea has bought 70,000 tonnes of US corn and 65,000 tonnes of option origin feed wheat. Japan bought 55,000 tonnes of wheat from Canada.

Weekly ethanol production fell to 868,000 barrels per day in the latest week. The year to date pace remains at 10% above last year. With the USDA raising ethanol usage on Friday’s S+D they are now expecting the whole-year production (Sep – Aug) to run 7.5% over last year.

December NOPA crush came in at 165.384 million bushels, above the 163.9 average guess. This is the biggest monthly crush number of all time.

We have been asked "How cheap is US corn and soybeans compared to the world prices?" Currently corn at the US gulf is priced at about $196 per ton while Argentina is $205, Brazil is $192 and Ukraine is $169 per tonne at their respective ports.

US soybeans are above equal to Brazil beans and $25 per tonne higher than Argentina soybeans. The US does have about a $10 to $15 per tonne freight advantage over South American ports.

Weekly Export Sales estimates for week ending January 9:

Corn               300,000-550,000 mt    

Soybeans        750,000-1,050,000 mt     

Soymeal           50,000-150,000 mt

Soyoil                   zero-35,000 mt

Wheat             350,000-600,000 mt       

China has raised its grain output target for 2014 from 5.25 mmt to more than 5.5 million tonnes, according to the 2014 planting work outline released by the Ministry of Agriculture on Tuesday.

Many elevators across the Midwest lowered corn basis again as farmers selling is causing unloading delays. We are hearing about hours being reduced at elevators and a processor closing for a few days to handle incoming soybeans.

Cash cattle traded yesterday at 142 in TX. Boxed beef values have gone up quickly and sharply due to limited supplies and aggressive fill-in buying by retailers. Seasoned livestock traders are cautious about this sharp of a price rally because they have seen prices fall even quicker. On Wednesday choice beef was up 3.58 and select was up 2.56. The CME Feeder Index is 171.16.

Pork futures are going along for the ride on the coat tails of cattle. Cash markets have stabilized but product seesaws back and forth. Pork cutout values were down .94 on Wednesday. Traders are looking for cheap pork to get some attention at retail counter which should help clean up supplies.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    + 3/4
  • Mar Beans   +3 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   – 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.47
  • Feb Hogs    +.00
  • Mar Dlr     -.04
  • Mar S&P     -2.00
  • Feb Crude   +.36
  • Feb Gold    -1.30
 

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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