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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

May Supply and Demand Expect to Move Markets

May 02, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 2, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybeans futures are lower as world traders return from holiday. The estimates for the May 10th USDA report from traders are stacking up to be one of the largest corn crops in several years and one of the tightest soybean ending stocks in nearly 2 decades. However, history suggests the May estimate is far from accurate in predicting the final numbers. The increase in bean acres will change the ending stock projections but acreage will not change until the June 30th report. Spreading will likely be a feature as weather forecast and money flow affect trader’s bias for several weeks. On Tuesday, funds sold 9,000 corn and 2,000 wheat and beans. Early indication from the Kansas wheat tour suggests very good yields compared to last year’s survey. China has bought over 8.0 mmt of new crop soybeans (a record for this early in the season) which indicates their concern about South American supplies. CME will expand trading hours starting Sunday, May 13. The Sunday session will start at 5:00 pm and run until 4:00 pm on Monday. And Monday through Friday sessions will start at 6:00 pm and run through 4:00 pm. Open Outcry will have the same hours. Packer margins are estimated to in the positive territory for the first time in months. That doesn’t mean they will have to be aggressive buying cattle due to the backlog of cattle on show lists. Boxed beef prices are acting toppy as choice is up .14 and select up .62. Warmer weather in metropolitan areas will help kick start the cookout season. Pork continues to struggle as cutout values were down .18. Stay in touch with Allendale Research by subscribing to the Allendale Research Center.
Markets as of 5:10AM
Jly Corn    -3
Jly Beans   -8
Jly Wheat   -6
Jun Cattle -.10
Jun Hogs    -.12
Jun S&P     -1.75
Jun Dlr     +.36
May Crude   -.41
June Gold   -7.60
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Spring wheat continues to hover above key support at 7.69 1/2. It is the low from the beginning of the year and if broken could trigger accelerate selling.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Monday afternoon USDA reported nationwide corn planting was 53% complete. This was far above expectations of 43% and above the five year average of 27%. The current rate is the second fastest in history.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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