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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Money Flow Drives Soybeans

Mar 19, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 19, 2014 at 5:00 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with soybeans higher; corn and wheat are lower. The upcoming quarterly stocks report seems to be providing the fuel as money flow buys soybeans.

Grain traders are struggling to find solid reasons for the strength in soybeans and grains in recent sessions. The trade is talking about cancellations by China, the possibility of several cargoes of soybeans from Brazil going to the East Coast of the US without a confirmation.  

The bottom line, money flow by funds was the driver yesterday. They are back as buyers overnight.

Putin using the vote by Crimea to take it back by force is creating nervousness but appears to be a long process before any conclusion. Russia now has another port to export to the world.

Conflicting reports on Ukraine’s spring seed crops will continue to provide support for corn and wheat.

There are reports this morning that China has booked 2 more cargoes of corn out of Ukraine.

US Planting Intention reports are only a few weeks away. If tension eases or news stories get old, traders will turn to the upcoming USDA Report for influence.

Cash grain market buyers raised bids while basis bids were weaker after the rally in board prices. Funds were net buyers of 7,000 wheat contracts, 6,000 corn and 9,000 soybean contracts.

EIA stocks are due to be released at 9:30 today.

Macro markets are waiting for Fed Chairman Yellen’s comments after the FOMC meeting this afternoon.

Pork cutout values were up 3.48 on Tuesday. Cash hog markets continue to strengthen as packers look for market ready hog supplies. Pork producers are telling us that gilts and sows are being bred at an unbelievable pace. This hold back of breeding stock is compounding the current tight supply situation.

The USDA will release the March 1 Cattle-on-Feed Report Friday. Cash trade is expected to be steady this week. The discount of futures to cash and the unending rally in pork is supporting live cattle futures. Beef cutout values are higher with choice up 1.21 and select up 1.13. The CME Feeder Index is 173.67.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May Corn    -1 3/4
  • May Beans   +16
  • May Wheat   -4
  • Apr Cattle  -.05
  • Apr Hogs    +.65
  • Jun Dlr     +.09
  • Jun S&P     +1.75
  • Apr Crude   -.09
  • Apr Gold    -11.00

Chart of the Day

Daily Chart

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