Sep 15, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Only A Few Days Until Another USDA Report

Apr 04, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 4, 2014 at 4:40 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with soybeans higher, corn and wheat lower. Tight US soybean supplies are supporting old crop while planting concerns weigh on new crop.

We could repeat comments from yesterday morning, where will the money flow today? Fund buying or money flow is impacting price movement and giving producers an opportunity to make marketing decisions with profitable production returns in the price.

Funds bought an estimated net 3,000 wheat contracts, 6,000 corn contracts, 5,000 soybean contracts, 1,000 soymeal contracts and 4,000 soyoil contracts on Thursday.

Traders and clients bring up the argument that it is getting late and the crop will not get in the ground on time. Have we forgotten last year where farmers planted nearly 60% of the corn crop in IL, IA, and MN in one week? They planted 62% of soybeans in one week as well.

The USDA monthly supply and demand report will be released next Wednesday, April 9. Allendale does not expect many surprises other than USDA making adjustments from the March 31 stocks.

Gulf basis is steady on corn but waning demand for soybeans and wheat was the reason for weaker bids.

Argentine harvest has been supported by recent dry weather. Yields there are coming in as expected, giving the reason for the Buenos Aries Exchange to keep soybean production at 54.5 mmt.

China canceled purchases of 221,400 tonnes of U.S. corn last week for unapproved GMO contamination, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They now have canceled more than 1 million tonnes of U.S. corn this season.

The cash hog index is 130.34 while the April futures are nearly a 6.00 discount. Packers have their needs for this week and meat is starting to find resistance at the retail counter. Pork cutout value was down 3.83 on Thursday. Spreads have been a feature this week in the pork complex.

Cash trade is quiet as packers are pulling contracted cattle. We are hearing bids at 147 and offers at 153. Tight supplies of feeder cattle have futures traders buying as potential moisture moves into the southern plains. Beef cutout values are weak with choice down .69 and select down 1.19. The CME Feeder Index is 177.83.

Markets as of 4:40 AM

  • May Corn    -2
  • May Beans   +6 1/2
  • May Wheat   -6 3/4
  • Jun Cattle  -.02
  • Jun Hogs    -1.15
  • Jun Dlr     +.01
  • Jun S&P     +3.5
  • May Crude   +.72
  • Jun Gold    +8.40

Chart of the Day

daily chart 4414


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