Sep 23, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Planting Survey Begins Today!

Feb 24, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 24, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with soybeans higher, corn and wheat lower. March soybeans are setting highs not seen since Sept 2012. Tight world supplies and technical buying seem to be the drivers.

Allendale starts its annual planted acreage survey today. Please go to and fill out the survey. The USDA will release their Prospective Plantings Report on March 31.

The polar vortex is expected to move down across much of the Midwest this week and as March 1 nears, farmers and traders become more concerned about spring planting. This week we have first notice day for the March contracts which could create some long liquidation.

Weather in South America is not ideal everywhere but should be adequate to stabilize crops.

The Argentine farmers holding grain off the market has set the stage for possible government intervention as harvest should be getting underway in the next couple of weeks.

There was no confirmation of cancellation on Friday with about 4 million tonnes of unshipped soybeans to China. Ethanol and soybean processing plant margins are favorable and expect good demand at least until roads and weather allow farmer movement.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders has managed funds as net buyers of 10,912 contracts to make them long about 45,000. Many traders following fund activity believe they could have bought as much as 50,000 contracts of corn late last week. Managed Money funds raised their long positions in soybeans by 19,366 and reduced short positions in wheat by 8,823 contracts.

From the G20 meeting in Sidney, Australia, the largest nations in the world vowed to increase GDP by 2% over the next 5 years. The dollar is lower and gold is up.

Beef values were lower with choice down .57 and select down .48. The Cattle on Feed report was negative as placement and on-feed numbers were higher than trade was expecting. Early calls are for cattle to open .30 to .50 lower. CME Feeder Index is 170.77.

Last week was great for the hog market. Cash markets picked up $7, wholesale pork gained $3, and all 2014 futures made new contract highs. Pork cutout values were up .35 on Friday. We would expect hogs to open lower in sympathy with cattle.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    -4 1/2
  • Mar Beans   +11
  • Mar Wheat   -5 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  Lower
  • Apr Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Mar Dlr     -.11
  • Mar S&P     +1.00
  • Apr Crude   -.10
  • Apr Gold    +10.30

Chart of the Day

Daily Chart

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