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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Prepare for Weather Market on Monday Night

Jan 17, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 17, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are lower as weather outlook remains positive for South American crops.

The weather pattern in Brazil should be favorable for most crops as regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue in much of the country. Harvest delays could be expected on early planted soybeans. World Weather Inc. is expecting some moisture relief for Argentina from Sunday through Jan 27. The extreme cold forecast for Russia should not affect wheat crop as most of it has snow cover. Remember we have a long weekend with markets closed on Monday. Therefore expect some fireworks based on weather forecasts when markets open at 7:00 pm Monday.

Weekly Export sales data showed higher numbers than trade was expecting in corn and soybeans. These robust sales put total sales for soybeans at 102% of USDA target and 80% of USDA target for corn. Overnight, Taiwan bought 60,000 tonnes of US origin corn.

Egypt bought 295,000 tonnes of wheat which 60,000 was from the US. More beans were sold to China and unknown buyers canceled corn purchases. Traders are still expecting cancellations of soybeans from China when soybeans become available from Brazil. Currently, mid-February prices for Brazilian soybeans are .90 cheaper than US origin.

Corn basis was 1 to 2 cents higher while soybean basis was down 3 to 6 cents at local elevators.

(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reaffirmed its intent to remain in the commodities trading business, deeming it "too important" to clients to exit, a top executive said on Thursday.

Cattle futures have settled back from highs after CNBC ran a story on the reason for sharp rally in cattle prices. Cash traded at 144 to 144.50 in NE while beef values jumped again to keep packer margins in the black. Choice beef was up 4.17 and Select was up 3.60 on Thursday. Boxed beef movement is down nearly 30% from the same period last year. Futures markets are over bought and sharp setbacks could happen at any time. The CME Feeder Index is 171.34.

Lean hog futures are getting support from cattle and we are hearing more talk that pork is getting retail attention. The pork complex is using the theory "cheap prices cure cheap prices." Backed up hog supplies should be getting cleaned up, watch for a drop in weights for the confirmation. Pork cutout values are up 1.18.

Rich Nelson will layout Allendale’s 2014 Livestock Outlooks at our Ag Leaders Conference Series. Click here for more information and registration.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    -2 1/4
  • Mar Beans   -4 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   -1 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  -.25
  • Feb Hogs    -.05
  • Mar Dlr     +.04
  • Mar S&P     +6.00
  • Feb Crude   +.48
  • Feb Gold    +.70

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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