Profit-Taking Ahead of Jobless Data
Feb 02, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 2, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain markets are lower on profit-taking after recent rallies. The macro situation in Europe continues to cool off as we wait for results from Greek debt swap negotiations. Weather in Argentina should provide plenty of rain which will be helpful to the Safrinha crops and late development of regular season corn and beans. There will be other areas which no amount of rain will help crops. Today will be a big day for reports. The USDA will give us the weekly export sales at 7:30; the estimates are: wheat 400-600 tmt, corn 700-950 tmt, beans 350-550 tmt, meal 75-150 tmt, bean oil 0-10 tmt. At 7:30, we get Jobless claims which could have a residual effect on grains. Friday morning, Stats Canada will release the year end stocks report. The Rodgers Fund should have wrapped up the roll of their March contracts. The export situation out of Russia is being watched closely as traders wait for an announcement of some kind of export tax. No cash cattle trade with very light demand. Cutout values were higher, choice up 1.4 and select up .60. Pork cutout was up .10. April futures contracts close strong on Wednesday with lean hogs breaking out of recent trading range. Look for further seasonal strength in hogs. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to call Allendale at 800-262-7538.
Markets as of 5:10AM
Corn -5 to -6 Live Cattle -20 to -30 US Dollar Index +04
Beans -6 to -7 Lean Hogs +10 to +25 Crude Oil -66
Wheat -7 to -9 S&P Index +2.25 Gold +.60
Allendale Advanced Charts
Crude Oil is testing the neckline of the Head and Shoulders top formation. The most recent low sits at 97.40 and if broken on the close suggests a move to 91.10.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The state weather forecaster indicated their winter crop production could fall by 42% to 58% due to this year’s drought. That would lower winter grain production by 10 to 14 million tonnes.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.