Sep 22, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Slow Planting Start For Corn

Apr 15, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 15, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with soybeans higher, wheat steady and corn lower.

Planting progress for corn is 3% completed nationally. Weather forecasts suggests slow progress this week but the last week in April should allow for much better planting conditions for western 2/3 of Midwest.

Winter wheat good to excellent conditions were down 1% to 34%.

A French analyst has cut their estimate of 2014 wheat crop in the Black Sea Region by nearly 4 million tonnes which is 9% less than last year. They cut corn production by 3.9 million tonnes which would be down 14.2% from last year. They see the rising turmoil in the region and dry weather as the reason for the reduced production outlook. Other analysts are citing lack of available financing, fewer fertilizers and poor quality seeds mean spring crops in Ukraine and Russia will be more vulnerable than ever due to changeable weather this year.

The National Oilseed Processors Association will release its monthly crush report today at 11:00 am. Trade estimates ahead of the report ranged from 140.1 million to 153.0 million bushels. The median was 146.5 million. The average would suggest a crush of 7% higher than last year and a very strong pace. In order to hit USDA’s target crush needs to run 3.2% below last year for the balance of the year.

Weekly export shipments were well below trade expectation for soybeans however there were 267,939 tonnes loaded out last week.

A major bank came out with their forecast for a negative return on commodity investments for the next 12 months, predicting a fall in precious metals, agriculture and energy. The decline will be led by a 15 percent drop in precious metals, 10 percent drop in agriculture, 2.5 percent drop in energy and a 4 percent decline in industrial metals.

China is expected to intensify its efforts to promote crop insurance, with a goal to cover 60 percent of the country’s cultivated land by 2020.

Market ready hog supplies are causing some packers to be dark during the Easter weekend. High prices have impacted weekly pork exports as it has fallen to the worst level this year. Hog slaughter is expected to continue to decline as the largest impact from PEDv should hit during summer months. Pork cutout values were down .35.

Beef cutout values were mixed with choice up .40 and select down .41. With a short trading week it is expected that retailers will have enough inventory and will want to clean out the coolers going into Easter. Beef demand should improve next week as cookout season is near. The CME Feeder Index is 180.39.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • May Corn    -3
  • May Beans   +6 1/2
  • May Wheat   + 1/4
  • Jun Cattle  -.05
  • Jun Hogs    +.32
  • Jun Dlr     +.11
  • Jun S&P     -2.00
  • May Crude   -.81
  • Jun Gold    -16.00

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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Grain futures are mixed with soybeans higher, wheat steady and corn lower.

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