Smaller Crops in US Stir Political Action
Jul 30, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 30, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are sharply higher this morning. Weather, chart patterns and politics should be influences to watch this week. Margin clerks will even have a hand in market stability as we approach month end tomorrow. The increase in food prices is getting attention in Washington and around the world. France is talking about calling an emergency meeting of Ag Leaders. Several US Governors are expected to file a petition this week with the EPA to waive the ethanol mandate. US House of Representatives are expect to propose a vote this week on a package which would provide disaster aid to farmers and an extension of the 2008 Farm Bill. Crop conditions report, due out this afternoon, is expected to see further declines in the G/E category by 2 to 3%. This weekend’s rain did not cover as much area as was earlier expected, however, more rain is possible through Tuesday for the Midwest. Heat is in the forecast for the southern MO and IL to be near 100 again midweek. The rains in the northern cornbelt have helped stabilize the corn crop and increase the hope for a decent bean crop. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report on Friday showed managed money increasing their long positions in corn by nearly 44,000 contracts. Non-commercial traders set a new record long position in wheat and new record short positions in feeder cattle. Cash cattle closed out the week at 114 which was steady to 1.00 higher than last week. Meat products ended weak. Choice beef was down 1.3 and select was down 1.30. Pork cutout values were down .64. I want to say thank you to the Melvin’s for their hospitality and a great meeting in Buffalo ND on Friday.
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn +20 2/4
Nov Beans +40 3/4
Sep Wheat +20
Aug Cattle stdy-hgr
Aug Hogs Stdy-hgr
Sep S&P -2.25
Sep Dlr +08
Sep Crude +.02
Aug Gold +1.10
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s strong trade in Oct. Lean Hogs closed above the 7/19 pivot high of $81.22 ½ and the downtrend line that has capped this market for the past three weeks. While this market is still at risk to a sideways churn, I feel that we must approach this trade as a base and reversal that could set up for higher prices.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
For now, supply is still the daily driver of prices. In the coming weeks the focus will turn to this demand picture.
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