Soybean Stocks Likely to Rise on Report
Oct 10, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 10, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grains are mostly lower in a quiet overnight session. Trade is expecting soybean yields to increase from the September USDA number of 35.7 bpa to 37.0 bpa on this report. Total production should jump to near 2.950 billion bushels. Demand is expected to increase which would leave ending stocks around 135 versus last month 115. Allendale’s studies are in agreement with trade average estimates. Where can there be a surprise in soybean data? The yield could be larger than expected as producer yield results coming into our office are much better than they were expecting. Wheat could see some adjustments in demand. Currently the USDA is expecting a 14% increase in exports compared to last year and wheat exports are running 8% below last year’s pace. China will be auctioning another 400,000 tonnes of soybeans from their reserve on Thursday. On the export front for corn, as of yesterday, US corn was priced at $318 per tonne, Argentina $267, Brazil $235 and Ukraine $227. This is why we expect USDA to reduce corn exports on the upcoming report. US farmers have 69% of the corn crop harvested and 58% of soybeans harvested compared to an average of 28% and 40% respectively. Winter wheat plantings are 57% compared to last year’s 53%. Reduced slaughter last week is supporting beef prices. Boxed beef was higher on Wednesday with choice up .63 and select up .87. This week’s production by packers should help narrow the gap in margins. Hog prices have rallied in line with seasonal patterns which could cause some weakness going into fall. Pork cutout values were up 1.40 on Wednesday. This month Allendale’s Ag Leaders Webinar is October 30.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn - 1/4
Nov Beans -3 3/4
Dec Wheat +4 1/4
Dec Cattle +.12
Dec Hogs +.57
Dec Dlr +.12
Dec S+P -2.50
Nov Crude -.75
Dec Gold -1.40
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Nov. Soybeans failed to maintain the highs that were put in early in the day. I still feel that the recovery attempt is still in order as he have slowed down our simple down trend of lower highs and lower lows. Unless we see a break of the 10/04 low of $15.04 I feel that the recovery attempt is valid…Frank La Placa
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
South American analysis firm, Celeres, estimates Brazil soybean planting is 3% complete. This is right on the 4% pace normally seen at this time. The group estimates forward sales of the spring 2013 harvest at 47%. That far surpasses the normal 20% rate at this time. Producers in much of Brazil’s Center and Northern areas would like a little more rain.
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