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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Soybeans Send Strong Technical Signal

Feb 28, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 28, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mixed as soybeans are getting follow through technical selling. Corn and wheat finding support from spreading. Traders are still waiting for demand news at 8:00 am.

Thanks to all who attended the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar last evening. There was great attendance as the Allendale team discussed some very important issues.

What a day of volatility on Thursday! There were a large amount of contracts traded prompted by the USDA announcement of weekly sales of 327,000 tonnes of 2013/14 soybeans. These sales raised the total soybean sales to 106% of USDA export target.

The soybean complex will likely find support on correction until sizable cancellation announcements occur. Floor sources are suggesting a major commercial was bear spreading in the July/November soybeans yesterday. Could that be an indication cancellations are getting closer to reality?

Most of the soybean contracts had major price reversals on Thursday. However the November contract had a large outside day down which could be significant unless a rally occurs within a couple of days.

Funds were estimated to have sold a net 13,000 corn, 8,000 wheat and 6,000 soybean contracts yesterday.

The unrest in Ukraine has traders nervous about exports out of that region. Egypt bought wheat from Black Sea Region as it was $10 to $15 cheaper than US.

Deliveries were minimal on the first notice day for March contracts, corn 4, soybeans 17 and wheat 0.

The US Dollar is down sharply this morning as the Euro rallies on higher inflation data out of EU.

Cash cattle traded at 150 in the south and 152 in the north this week. Product values have improved but not enough to turn packer margins to positive. Beef cutout values were higher on Thursday with choice up 2.46 and select up 2.33. The CME Feeder Index is 170.76.

Hog futures are on fire led by the April contract. Traders have been short April and long the summer contracts anticipating the effects of PEDv would not hit until late second quarter. The rising beef prices have provided improvement in pork product demand. Russia said they were going to resume pork purchases from the US. Pork cutout values are up 2.30.

Allendale Annual Planted Acreage Survey is going right now. Please call us or go to and fill out the survey.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • May Corn    +1 1/2
  • May Beans   -5
  • May Wheat   +3 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  -.10
  • Apr Hogs    +.67
  • Mar Dlr     -.40
  • Mar S&P     -1.25
  • Apr Crude   -.04
  • Apr Gold    -1.80

Chart of the Day

Daily Chart

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