State By State Production Analysis
Aug 08, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 8, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher on short-covering ahead of the USDA report on Monday.
Click here for a detailed State by State Breakdown on corn production and their impact on the bottom line to total production. Rich Nelson shares data on how Allendale comes up with the estimate of 156.2 yields.
This morning, at 7:30, the USDA gives us the weekly export sales data. Estimates for old crop corn are 0 to 200 tmt, new crop is 450 to 700 tmt. Old crop Soybean estimates are 0 to 100 tmt and new crop is 700 tmt to 1.00 mmt. The wheat sales estimate is 500 to 700 tmt.
The Goldman roll started yesterday and caused pressure on the Sept contract compared to the deferred months. Basis for nearby cash markets continues to strengthen as tight pipeline supplies will be a focus for end-users as they wait for harvest to begin. The Goldman roll is expected to continue through the 13th.
The EIA ethanol production data was higher than last week and 4% higher than last year. This data now puts the yearly ethanol production very close to the USDA 2012/13 goal of a 7.2% year over year.
Weather continues to be favorable for US crops but traders are beginning to be very worried about the maturity progress. Producers from all across the cornbelt are sharing their stories about what an early frost would do to their production. Spring wheat producers are running about 2 weeks behind in harvest with some now worried about quality problems. The 2013 weather market is now beginning phase III.
Tyson announced that they are going stop accepting cattle that have been fed the Zilmax additive. The news pushed prices into stops above the market. Boxed beef was higher on Wednesday afternoon; choice was up 1.49 and select was up .77. There were no new cattle deliveries however there were 60 loads re-tendered. The CME Feeder Index was down .05 to 149.74. Hog futures recovered some of Wednesday’s losses on the Tyson news. Pork cutout values were down .34.
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Markets as of 5:00 AM
- Dec Corn +4
- Nov Beans +11 1/4
- Sep Wheat +2 1/4
- Oct Cattle +2.72
- Oct Hogs +.60
- Sep Dlr -.14
- Sep S&P +3.00
- Sep Crude -.19
- Aug Gold +4.10
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