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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Tension Builds as USDA Report Approaches

Jul 11, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 11, 2012 at 5:15 am. Corn and soybean futures are mostly higher ahead of USDA report. Open Outcry session will open at 7:20 this morning. Any weather forecast change will likely overshadow the USDA report. However traders will use the report to adjust yield as the USDA will be using estimates from July 1. Cash markets at the gulf are weaker in corn overnight. Demand is slowing down for higher priced grains. USDA report is out at 7:30 this morning. Key points to watch for are 2011-12 ending stocks for corn and soybeans. Trader’s average estimates are 170 mb for beans and 840 mb for corn. Yield will be the key to ending stocks for 2012-13. Traders are expecting corn yields to drop to mid to low 150’s on this report. That would take ending stocks down to 1.232 mb from 1.881 mb last month. Also keep an eye on changes in world production. Get the full breakdown on the Allendale "Morning Coffee". Cash cattle are still at a standstill this week. Product is under pressure with choice beef down 2.16 and select down .73. Lean hog futures are testing technical support as product continues to come in at lower money. Pork cutout was down .28 on Tuesday. Subscribe to the Allendale Research Center to get the full market updates.
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Jly Corn    +5 1/2
Jly Beans   -6 1/2
Jly Wheat   +4
Aug Cattle +.45
Jly Hogs    +.45
Sep S&P     +2.25
Sep Dlr     -.19
Aug Crude   +.75
Aug Gold    -5.20
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade in Dec Wheat shows a market that is still taking a break at higher levels. While the major uptrend is the dominant feature on the chart if the gap that was left on 7/5 is filled, a correction should be expected.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
While the market has been following the high priced corn issue closely from a short term standpoint we still feel this should be more of a long term story. Extremely high temperatures in the past two weeks likely impacted breeding herd performance.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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