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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Traders Already Looking To Supply And Demand Report

Apr 02, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 2, 2013 at 4:45 am. Grains futures are higher on short covering after a record two day slide in corn prices. When will the liquidation of longs in the old crop corn be complete? The nearby corn futures have fallen over 90 cents in 2 sessions. A large financial institution has lowered their price projections dramatically after the USDA report last Thursday. Traders are concerned that the USDA will add the 400 million bushels to last month's ending stocks and get a carryover of 1 billion bushels for corn on the April S & D report. Allendale’s analysis suggests the USDA will likely add only a portion of the increase which could be viewed as friendly on April 10. The immediate problem is liquidation of longs in the old crop corn and the old crop/new crop spreads. Money management and margin liquidation has its hands around the throat of the bull. Funds were estimated to have sold 35,000 corn contracts, 6,000 soybeans and 4,000 wheat contracts on Monday. Corn trading limit reverts back to 40 cents today. Farmer selling of cash corn and soybeans has come to a complete standstill on this selloff in futures. Nationally, wheat conditions improved by 1% compared to the 33% G/E which was the last number from USDA. The National Weather service has warmed up the forecast for the Midwest which should allow for planting to begin later this week in Southern IL and IN. Feeder cattle is the bright spot in the livestock sector. The lower feed price outlook has given hope to the cattle feeder. Choice beef was up 1.48 on Monday as retailers restock coolers and prepare for a possible better weekend for a cookout. Select beef was down .07. Pork cutout values were up .75. The feeder cattle index was 138.13 on Monday. The Allendale Advisory Report has the complete details and analysis to help you implement your trading strategies.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • May #Corn    +7 3/4
  • May #Beans   +9 1/4
  • May #Wheat   +6 3/4
  • Apr #Cattle  +.25
  • Apr #Hogs    +.05
  • Jun Dlr     +.01
  • Jun S&P     +6.00
  • May Crude   +.08
  • Jun Gold    -2.80

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538

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