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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Traders Prepare for Mondays Planting Report

May 16, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 16, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Outside markets are under pressure again this morning. I will apologize in advance for not putting out a Wake-up Call on Friday morning. Traveling to New York City later this morning and returning on the redeye will cause great inconvenience in getting out the report. Instead I will give all readers free access to the Allendale Advisory Report. See all details tomorrow morning. Planting progress is expected have a significant improvement this week. We are getting more clients saying they are done planting corn. There have been some analysts expecting IA to be 70% planted by Monday’s report. The short term forecast has 1 to 2 inch rains across central IL and IN through the weekend. However southwestern IL looks drier giving farmers a chance to get fieldwork done. The NOPA crush was 9% below last year but in order to hit the USDA target in the balance sheet, crush needs to be 23% below last year’s production. Wheat market was hit by a little wetter forecast for southern plains and technical selling pressure yesterday. Funds are estimated selling a net 5,000 corn contracts and 4,000 wheat contracts. They were estimated even on the soybeans. Brazil stevedores end their 2 day strike at Santos port according to Reuters New. Midwest basis is still firm on lack of grain movement.

USDA releases sales data at 7:30.

TABLE-Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain/soy export sales – RTRS

                  2012/13                    2013/14        

                         Estimates                     Estimates                   

Corn            150,000-250,000        150,000-250,000

Soybeans           zero-100,000        400,000-500,000

Soymeal             zero-100,000              zero-80,000

Soyoil               5,000-15,000                zero         

Wheat                 zero-250,000        250,000-350,000    

The USDA will release the May Cattle on Feed Friday afternoon at 2:00pm. The trade estimates are: On-Feed 96.5, Placed 114.7 and Marketed 102.2. Placements seem large when compared to a year ago low number. Cash cattle trade is still at a standstill as packers are concerned about beef prices next week. Most of Memorial Day demand should be complete by Monday. Boxed beef is higher with choice up 1.86 and select up .68. Packer margins are now near $70 in the black. Nearby hog futures find support on tight cash supplies due to producers concentrating on fieldwork. Pork cutout values are up 1.02 as retailers prepare for the holiday weekend. The May Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is set for May 28 at 8 PM, register here.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • Jul Corn    – 1/2
  • Jul Beans   +4 1/4
  • Jul Wheat   +3 1/4
  • Jun Cattle  +.20
  • Jun Hogs    +.32
  • Jun Dlr     +.03
  • Jun S&P     -2.00
  • Jun Crude   -.73
  • Jun Gold    -24.90

 View our Technical Chart of the Day

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

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