True Turnaround Tuesday
Aug 20, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 20, 2013 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are lower on profit-taking after the sharp Monday rally.
The weather forecast is for most of the Midwestern states to experience net drying conditions for at least the next week to ten days. A majority of the area will continue to see favorable crop development, but the lack of rain combined with warm to hot temperatures will accelerate the drying rate for many areas and could lead to some production concern.
The weekly crop conditions report put corn at 61% Good/Excellent compared to 23% last year and 58% for the 10 year average. Corn in dough stage was 52% versus 65% average however dent was only 11% versus 30% average. The soybeans were 62% Good/Excellent compared to 31% last year and 58% for the 10 year average. Pod setting in soybeans was 72% versus 81% average.
News headlines will continue to be released today as the crop tour moves into IN and NE. Expect more pictures and comments on twitter and other social media. The tour sees the results of South Dakota corn yields at 161 versus the tour’s 3 year average of 120 and Ohio corn yield at 171 versus 144 bushels per acre for the tour’s 3 year average. Soybean pod counts are above a tour average for both Ohio and South Dakota.
Cash basis for soybeans declined after yesterday’s rally however corn remains firm.
Chart resistance in corn crosses at 4.90 and 5.00 with first level of support at 4.75 in December corn. Next resistance in soybeans is a long-term trendline, crossing at 13.12. September option expiration is Friday for CME grain contracts.
Tomorrow we will get the minutes of the FOMC meeting and data from Stats Canada.
Deferred contracts of live cattle futures are being supported by higher grain prices and providing support to the feeder cattle contracts. The CME Feeder Index was up 2.65 to 155.01 on Monday. Boxed beef was up .83 and the select was down .24. Packers are looking for a few hogs to finish out this week’s needs but larger supplies of market-ready hogs could keep prices steady. Pork cutout values were down 1.40.
Allendale Yield Survey results historically have been very close to the September USDA estimate only because of your help and your knowledge of your farms’ production. Thanks in advance.
Markets as of 4:45 AM
- Dec Corn -5 3/4
- Nov Beans -18 1/4
- Sep Wheat -4 1/2
- Oct Cattle +.15
- Oct Hogs =.02
- Sep Dlr -.22
- Sep S&P -2.50
- Sep Crude -.84
- Oct Gold -1.00
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