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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

USDA Changes Report Release Time

Sep 20, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 20, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are lower as the battle between technical and fundamental traders continues. Macro markets are also providing pressure on commodities due to poor data out of Ireland. Yesterday afternoon USDA said they will change the release time of major grain reports to 11:00 am central time starting in January 2013. Now that much of the harvest is completed in the southern cornbelt and yields in many northern areas are better than expected supply side bullish news is behind us. The demand side of the equation is now the focus. The USDA weekly export sales data is out this morning at 7:30. Trade estimates are corn 350 to 450 tmt, soybeans 550 to 750 tmt, soymeal 550 to 200 tmt, soyoil 10 to 20 tmt and wheat 350 to 550 tmt. Prices of US corn on the world markets are $20 to $30 per tonne over our South American competitors. Soybeans are driven by talk of China buying 2 to 20 cargoes. These rumors have been circulating for several days and we have yet to see any announcements on the daily sales report. Iraq was reported as buying 150,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia. It is cheaper than US even with the possibility of Russia halting shipments at any time. The chart picture has also been a key factor for grain prices this week. It is important to retrace most of the early week’s sell-off by the close on Friday. Another lower weekly close would support the bear’s technical argument that the corn market is headed to the gap on the December chart at 6.80. November beans have a gap near 14.50. Weather forecast has turned a little drier for Brazil in the short-term and a little wetter for the 6 to 10 day period. The southern plains remain dry. We expect there is more two-sided trade ahead of us. Live hog weights in IA/MN have started to show a decline which may be the first indication that supplies have peaked. However pork cutout values have not yet provided the same signal. Wednesday values were down .88. Boxed beef values had choice up .65 and select was down .04. Sign up for the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar next Tuesday evening at 8:00 pm.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -6 1/2
Nov Beans   -14
Dec Wheat   -5
Oct Cattle -.02
Oct Hogs    +.25
Sep Dlr     +.48
Sep S+P     -4.50
Oct Crude   -.95
Dec Gold    -11.70
 
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Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s sharp decline in Nov Crude oil has left the 9/14 pivot high of $100.73 as the minimum level this market must correct above to negate the newly confirmed downtrend. With no levels of technical support until the 8/02 low of $87.58, we would not be surprised to see this sharp decline in prices continue. Please review Allendale Inc.’s trade recommendation page for guidance on how to take advantage of this scenario…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Midwest mostly got through the early week cold snap without a problem. The next round is lined up for Friday. Clearer skies and concerns about stalk stability could make this a very active harvest week in the Midwest.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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