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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

USDA Reports Next “On the List”

Dec 31, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 31, 2013 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are quietly mixed. As we enter the last trading day of the year, traders are making last minute adjustments to positions for 2013 and begin to focus on the January 10th USDA Reports. There are four key factors that could have an impact on price direction in those reports: supply adjustments, demand adjustments, grain stocks and planted wheat acres.

Argentina Grain Exchange is expecting 55 mmt of soybeans in the 2013/14 crop compared to 48.3 mmt last year. Corn production is forecast at 22 mmt versus last year’s 26 mmt.

Weather forecast for Argentina’s major crop producing area will be hot and dry for a few days then moisture should relieve any stress on crops.

Brazil soybean producers are starting harvest in the northern region where planting started early, no yield results yet.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders showed Managed Money decreased short positions by 17,051 in corn and by 1,882 contracts in wheat. Managed Money funds reduced long positions in soybeans by 6,633 contracts through last Tuesday.

Cold weather in the upper Midwest is slowing movement of hogs while slowing gains in open confinement facilities. The holiday week is backing up hogs at a time when weights are running above normal. The USDA Hog and Pigs Report did not clear up concerns of PEDv losses. Pork cutout values were up .78 on Monday.

Cattle futures traders are waiting for the next report of cash sales later this week. First of the month featuring at the retail counter could support red meat. Competition from poultry will continue to be a challenge even with tighter supplies of fed cattle. Beef cutout values were sharply higher with choice up 2.72 and select up 4.16. The CME Feeder Index was 164.67.

The next Wake-Up Call will be available on Friday Morning. Markets are closed on Wednesday and will reopen with the pit-trade on Thursday morning.

Have a Joyous and Prosperous New Year!

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    – 1/2
  • Jan Beans   -1 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   + 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  +.15
  • Feb Hogs    -.02
  • Mar Dlr     +.08
  • Mar S&P     +1.25
  • Feb Crude   -.41
  • Feb Gold    -2.30

Chart of the Day


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