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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Waffling Weather Worries Traders

Aug 28, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 27, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher as dry conditions stress crops.

Allendale’s 24th Annual Yield Survey has only 3 day left. Go to and fill out the short survey. "You know your fields better than anyone!"

Weather forecast from the GFS model turned a little wetter in the 5 day and much wetter in the 11 to 15 periods. Temps cool off early next week and in the 11 to 15 day period there now is talk of much cooler temps in northern Wisconsin. The Euro model is less convincing of rain potential. With the deteriorating yields, traders want to see the rain before giving up their position.

Farm Futures Magazine surveyed a group of farmers who said they will plant 3.4% less corn acres in 2014 and they intend to plant 2% more soybeans. That would make a record planting of soybean acres in 2014.

Tuesday soybean futures retested contract highs that were made on September 14, 2012. The 14.09 ¾ is now a critical resistance level in the November futures contracts. The gap left after Monday’s sharply higher opening will be support.

CONAB has lowered Brazil’s wheat production in its largest producing state by 700,000 tonnes due to the July frost. The weather forecast is for that area to have a chance of frost this morning as well. Brazil is not a big exporter of wheat but this could mean more business for the US.

CME has posted hours for Labor Day, grain markets will be closed Sunday night and Monday. They will open at 7:00 pm on Monday evening. Livestock will open on Tuesday morning at 9:05. First notice day is Friday for the September CME grain contracts.

Friday, August 30 is the last trading day for the August cattle contract. Trade is waiting for news of cash cattle sales this week as expectations are for steady to higher. With the short work week after Labor Day and the official end of cookout season, packers will try to play hard ball, however, tight cattle supplies should be supportive. Cutout values were higher with choice up .29 and select up 1.50. The CME Feeder Index was 155.00 down .59. Cash hogs are being supported by hot temps in the Midwest. Retailers have likely completed filling buying for the holiday. Pork cutout values were down .21 on 357 loads.

Thank you for a great turnout at the August Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar. Those who could not make last night’s live broadcast can log into the recorded session of an outstanding conversation with a USDA Meteorologist.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +2 1/4
  • Nov Beans  +2 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   +3 1/4
  • Oct Cattle     +.15
  • Oct Hogs       -.15
  • Sep Dlr         +.13
  • Sep S&P     +1.75
  • Oct Crude   +.78
  • Oct Gold    +5.50


View the Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at

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