Waiting for USDA Report
Jan 12, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 12, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grains are in a nervous quiet trade ahead of the 7:30 USDA Report. Things to consider going into the final hour of trading before USDA report: 1.) most of Brazil’s soybean producing area is receiving adequate moisture. 2.)Argentina soy crop received some rains in past few days. 3.) Corn and soybeans have rallied 75 cents and 1 dollar respectively off of December lows. 4.) Ethanol credit is gone therefore will industry continue to over produce mandate? Where will demand come from to consume this supply? Corn production at trend yield for 2012 US corn will increase. Can corn put together 3 years in a row below trend yield? The US dollar is posting new highs on EU financial concern. Will the funds pull back their investments in commodities? And the toughest question of all. Can you stand being wrong as this report has a history of sharp post report moves? The grain markets close at 7:15 CST there may be time to reduce risk. Beef cutout values were lower on Wednesday, choice down 1.23 and select down 1.39. Larger weights and increased slaughter is causing pressure in product. Pork cutout values were .46 lower. Cattle futures will also be influenced by the grain data this morning. The hotel where the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference
will be held has told us they have filled up. There are rooms available at the Hampton Inn in McHenry and shuttle service will be provided. Call our office at 800-262-7538 if you have any problems and we will help get it worked out. Ask for Greg or Jeremy. We will be giving you an update on the report on the Allendale Morning Coffee
around 8.00 am.
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Corn: 0 to 1 higher Beans: 4 to 6 lower Wheat:0 to 1 lower
Live Cattle: 15 to 30 lower Lean Hogs: 30 to 40 lower
Dollar: .37 higher Crude: .65 lower Gold: 5.10 higher
Allendale Advanced Charts
Beans gave back the majority of their gains from Monday on Wednesday. The market managed to hold above the key 12.00 level for the close. Resistance remains up near 12.45 wher the 38% retracement and the 100 day moving average converge.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The European Union agreed to hold a meeting on January 23 of foreign ministers. This Foreign Affairs committee will decide whether to start an oil embargo against Iran. Oil supply fears are keeping crude prices high.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.