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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Weather, Weekend and China

Apr 11, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 11, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mixed as the weather forecast is the focus for corn traders heading into the weekend. China’s default on bean purchases weigh on futures.

Allendale continues to grow by adding an in-house meteorologist Ryan Martin. You are able to get his insight on US weather by clicking Allendale Weather.

USDA Weekly Export sales in soybeans at 79,000 were considered friendly however the news of China backing away from several cargoes of soybeans due to a line of credit has pressured prices. The trade now will be watching the newswire very closely at 8:00 am when the USDA announces new sales or cancellations to see if there are any official cancellations.

Egypt is tendering for 55,000 to 60,000 tonnes of soft wheat after 2 cargoes were being held up in Russian ports.

The Climate Prediction Center, an agency of the National Weather Service, pegged the likelihood at more than 50 percent that an El Nino will develop by this summer.

The Brazilian crop agency, Conab, expects a record soy crop of 86.1 mmt, up from 85.4 mmt seen last month. USDA said 87.5 mmt onWednesday. Conab’s corn forecast was little changed at 75.46 mmt, up from last estimate of 75.18 mmt, USDA said 72 mmt.

The first Conab wheat forecast for 2014/15 is 6.7 mmt compared with 5.5 mmt 2013/14 crop.

IA soybean basis (futures minus cash) is nearly 75 cents per bushel less than last year at this time.

Russian President Putin has warned the EU that if Ukraine delays in paying for gas it could become a critical situation. Russia may be forced to stop movement of gas across Ukraine. EU gets about one third of its gas from Russia.

Japan and the United States are seeking a two-way trade deal before Obama travels to Japan for an April 24-25 state visit. It is believed Japan is offering a tariff reduction on US beef from 38.5% down to 10%. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .46 and select down .93. Featuring of beef and buying for Memorial Day usually is supportive to beef product values the week after Easter. Cash trade is developing at steady to $1.00 lower this week. The CME Feeder Index is 178.31.

Grocery retail ads this week has beef prices edging lower. Pork prices this week work higher as bacon moves above $4.00 per pound. Chicken ads were steady with last week. Pork cutout values were down 2.48 on Thursday. Yesterday’s volatility in lean hog futures was on low volume.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • May Corn    +2
  • May Beans   -5 1/4
  • May Wheat   – 1/4
  • Jun Cattle  +.25
  • Jun Hogs    -.70
  • Jun Dlr     +.04
  • Jun S&P     +.25
  • May Crude   -.23
  • Jun Gold    -1.30

Chart of the Day

daily chart

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