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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Weather Cools Off Trade

Aug 06, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 6, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower on cooler forecast and outside market adjustments from Friday’s close. Traveling across northern IL this past weekend provided some very alarming views of a corn crop. However there were fields of excellent looking corn and soybeans. It would appear the tillage practices had a huge impact this year. It will be interesting how the USDA will deal with fields harvested for silage that would have produced zero corn when combined. The rains which fell across 2/3 of the cornbelt should be helpful to soybeans but will need another shower very soon. Forecasts are for cooler temps this week than earlier thought. Crop conditions will likely slide another 1 to 2% this afternoon. This week, traders will be getting positioned for the August USDA Supply and Demand Report on Friday morning. The key focus points on this report will be yield, and harvested acres. Ending stocks adjustment for old crop corn and beans is a highlighted point of interest. Keep a close-eye on headlines coming out of the EU this week. Goldman roll should start on Tuesday. Livestock producers are struggling with the drought and finding feed supplies. Meat production is higher as producers liquidate breeding stock. Congress left Washington for a 5 week summer vacation without passing the drought assistance bill for livestock producers. Boxed beef had choice down .01 and select up .25 on Friday. Pork cutout values were up .37. Look for direction from where the dollar and grain prices are trading at the 9:05 opening for cattle and hogs.
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Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    -9
Nov Beans   -37 1/2
Sep Wheat   -10 1/2
Aug Cattle Stdy-Hgr
Aug Hogs    Stdy-Hgr
Sep S&P     +2.50
Sep Dlr     +.10
Sep Crude   -.42
Aug Gold    -1.50
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Fridays close was the first close for front month Corn above $8.00 in the history of the Corn contract. The market must now take out the 7/31 $8.20 ½ high in order to continue to confirm strength "uphere".We still feel that producers need to keep an eye on the $7.45 level in order to begin protecting unpriced bushels.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Non-farm payrolls came in at 163,000 last month versus the trade estimate of 101,000. On the other hand, the US unemployment rate went up to 8.3%. The trade was looking for 8.2%.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
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