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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Weather Versus Demand Battle

Feb 06, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 6, 2013 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower overnight as more moisture is added to the forecast for Argentina. Technical overbought conditions and European financial struggles are adding to the selling bias. Weather conditions in South America have some analysts cutting soybean and corn production almost on a daily basis. On the other hand, some are increasing Brazil's production.  Friday at 11:00 am the USDA will release the February Supply and Demand. Traders are expecting to see an increase in ending stocks in corn due to poor export demand and slowdown in ethanol production. The opposite is expected for soybeans. Positive crush and Chinese demand for soybeans should lower last month's ending stock. Weather forecasting models have put more moisture in for next week. The bottom line is, we are in a weather market due to conditions in South America which will likely continue for a few more weeks. Demand for US corn is weighing on prices. Traders are expecting more soybean sales to be announced before the Chinese New Year’s Holiday begins on Saturday. Weekly export sales report will be released tomorrow morning. The Congressional Budget Office released its projections for 2013 corn plantings at 97.0 million acres with a yield of 161.5. Soybean acres are projected at 77.0 million with a yield of 43.5 bushel per acre. Total production for corn was 14.454 billion bushel and soybeans were estimated at 3.306 billion bushel. 2013 ending stocks were 1.852 for corn and 281 for soybeans. Cash markets have been quiet as producers close bin doors on price declines. Livestock traders are expecting to see stronger cash cattle this week as we finally see an improvement in boxed beef. Choice was up 1.57 and select was up .71 on Tuesday. Warmer weather in the Midwest is a contributor to hogs gains and a pickup in movement. Pork cutout values were down 1.62. Feeder cattle index is 146.86 up .09. Make sure to sign up on line if you will be able to attend any of the Allendale Road Series Meetings.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Mar #Corn    -5
  • Mar #Beans   -10 1/2
  • Mar #Wheat   -4 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  +.57
  • Feb Hogs    -.30
  • Mar Dlr     +.24
  • Mar S&P     +.75
  • Mar Crude   -.63
  • Feb Gold    +3.80


Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538

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