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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

What To Watch As A Volatile Week Comes To End

Mar 14, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 14, 2014 at 4:50 am.  

Grain futures are lower as traders even up some positions. The elections and political positioning in Crimea this weekend is adding uncertainty.

Allendale releases the planting survey results. Farmers say they will plant 92.349 million acres of corn and 83.212 million acres of soybeans. Corn planting intentions at 92.349 million acres would be the fourth largest since 1944 when 94.473 million acres were planted. Using Allendale Inc.’s estimate of harvested acreage and our 163.06 bushel/acre trend yield, it would imply the second largest production of 13.781 billion bushels. Last year’s production was 13.925 billion bushels.   

Soybean intentions of 83.212 million acres would be record plantings. Using Allendale Inc.’s estimate of harvested acreage and our 44.29 bushel per acre trend yield, it would imply production of 3.639 billion bushels and a new all-time record high. Last year’s production was 3.289 billion bushels.

For more information regarding Allendale’s 25th Annual Planted Acreage Survey, click here.

Other market concerns this morning are: Argentina’s largest grain exporting port in Rosario had a ship run aground and will block the channel for up to a week. This comes at a time when new crop corn and soybeans will be harvested and ready for export.

Brazil’s major soybean port has 20% less ships in line to load this year compared to last year. Less corn to ship this year has soybean shipments moving at a much faster pace as reason for this year’s efficiency.

NOPA crush data will be released on Monday at 11:00 am. Trade will be using this information to calculate tightness in quarterly stocks.

March grain and oilseed contracts stop trading today at 12 noon.

US gulf basis for corn weakened because South America offers a better value for exporters. Soybean basis drifts lower as China is quiet and talk continues to suggest they want to resell some of the previous purchases.

Outside markets will be preparing for Ms. Yellen’s leadership at next week’s FOMC meeting. They are also concerned about China’s economy and the vote this weekend in Crimea.

Reports from our producer clients are telling us about the death loss of baby pigs and other talk about finishing barns sitting empty. US Senators are requesting a disaster declaration for small pork producers due to the PEDv losses. The deadly virus has now spread to 27 states. Pork cutout values were up .87 to 121.47.

Packer margins are several dollars in the black and feedlot managers are holding out for steady to higher prices this week. Beef values are mixed with choice down .21 and select up .11. The CME Feeder Index is 173.60. Live Cattle futures are being supported by the discount to cash and the rally in lean hog futures.

Markets as of 4:50 AM

  • May Corn    -3
  • May Beans   -8
  • May Wheat   -2
  • Apr Cattle  +.47
  • Apr Hogs    +.15
  • Mar Dlr     -.10
  • Mar S&P     +3.00
  • Apr Crude   +.09
  • Apr Gold    +.90

Chart of the Day

Daily Chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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