Will Kicking the Can Be The Solution?
Oct 15, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 15, 2013 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are mixed with some spread unwinding in wheat and corn. Optimism that Washington will reach a resolution before the deadline is providing support for the US Dollar.
A weather system moving across the Midwest is slowing harvest for a few days but an extended dry period should follow. The northern half of cornbelt’s growing season will likely come to an end this weekend.
NOPA crush data will be released today at 11:00 am with trade expecting 106.4 million bushels crushed during September.
The weekly export inspections and shipments will be released later this morning. Normally this information would be reported on Monday’s but was delayed due to holiday.
Newswires continue to survey analysts to get a feeling of what USDA might release if they were working. Trade is estimating a 158+ corn yield now as harvest reports are running above expectations. One producer told us his corn is averaging 27 bushels above the best yield he ever produced.
Using a 158 yield plus a larger beginning stock number and the potential of reduced ethanol usage, it makes it easy to come up with 2013/14 corn ending stocks over 2.0 billion bushels.
A newswire survey has bean yields moving up to the 43 to 44 level again. This could raise ending stocks to above 150.
There has been more trade talk that China is buying beans from the US. Allendale’s Rich Nelson believes with a target of China importing 69 mmt of soybeans this year they will be aggressive in purchasing US beans due to last year’s logistics problems in South America.
China’s Ag Ministry says wheat seeding is down due to recent dry conditions.
Without daily slaughter data, traders must do their own math. Last week’s hog slaughter was likely around 2.2 million head. This week’s run may pick up another 25,000 to 50,000 head more. Although this may look like a large increase it is nowhere near the increase implied by the September Hogs and Pigs report.
Cattle news to watch for is the trade estimates for what would be the October Cattle on Feed Report which is due to be released Friday. The early talk is for placements to run 2% to 4% higher than last year.
Call your Allendale Representative with questions at 800-262-7538.
Markets as of 4:45 AM
- Dec Corn +1 3/4
- Nov Beans + 1/4
- Dec Wheat -2 3/4
- Dec Cattle -.15
- Dec Hogs -.05
- Dec Dlr +.36
- Dec S&P +3.00
- Nov Crude -.53
- Dec Gold -19.80
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